房產泡沫遲早會破

 羅伯特 清崎的文章 - 中文是加的注

 

The coming bust started in 1971. That was the year Richard Nixon took the United States off the gold standard, thus converting the U.S. dollar from money to currency -- that is, from an asset to a liability, and an instrument of debt. That was the year the dollar died.

 

Reagan cut taxes and started borrowing money, increasing the national debt. As a nation and as a people, we began borrowing and spending to spur the economy. And the economy boomed until 2000.

 

We lowered interest rates and began printing more money. In 2003 and 2004, the Bank of Japan created 35 trillion yen to save the dollar and their economy.

(日本東京大學的伊藤 （Takatoshi Ito）教授研究發現，在2003年1月-2004年3月，為了阻止日元升值，日本大藏省和日本銀行在芝加哥期貨市場賣出35萬億日 元，買進3170億美元。他估計，這樣的公開操作至少損失了幾百億美元，因為日元的期貨市場不在日本境內，隻能通過芝加哥期貨市場進行交易。)

 

It was like a loan of $320 billion to the United States, and probably prevented a run on the dollar.

 

Today, China ships us products and we ship them dollars. The problem is that the Chinese can't spend those dollars. If they do, the price of their currency, the yuan, would go up. Why? It's simply a matter of supply and demand.

 

So instead of spending their U.S. dollars in China, the Chinese buy our assets, especially U.S. bonds, with them. Because they buy our bonds, interest rates in the U.S. remain low,

 

(中國拋售美國國債的確會引發美國國債利率上升,但不是所有美國國債利率都會上升,隻是新發國債利率上升.如果中國大量拋售美債,勢必會引發舊美債價格下 跌,那樣美國必須提高新發國債的利率來吸引買家.而從今年5月起,美國新發國債利率已經從4.6%上升到5.3%,就是因為預期美國減息落空,通貨膨脹還 有就是中國外匯投資黑石公司,以及組建匯投公司進行海外投資,使得美國恐慌中國開始減持美國國債.

 

中國是美國國債第二大買家，持有大約4140億美元國債，占美國國債總流通量10％。中國外匯儲備40％購買美國債，但在美元不斷貶值、美國內加息預期濃厚導致國債價格大跌情況下，40％比例顯得不合時宜)

 

America’s low interest rates encourage Americans to borrow more money. This causes bubbles in real estate and the stock market.

 

Using Chinese debt collateralized by U.S. debt, they've been buying natural resources from all over the world. Consequently, countries that are rich in natural resources -- such as Canada and Australia -- are booming. Real estate and stock markets in those countries are hot.

 

The problem is almost as bad in China. The Chinese are using U.S. debt as collateral in borrowing yuan to finance projects within their country.

 

But the global boom is clearly built on a mountain of debt.

 

In the 1980s, instead of using gold to finance their economy, the Japanese used U.S. debt as collateral for Japanese debt. This caused the Japanese economy to boom just as the Chinese economy is booming today

 

we'd like to see the yuan float the way the Japanese let the yen float. This would make it easier for us to reduce our balance of trade, as well as pay back our debt with cheaper dollars.

 

The problem is that the Chinese know from the Japanese experience that we can talk tough but not act tough -- they simply hold too much of our debt for us to take measures. And if the Chinese started dumping U.S dollars and bonds on the world market, the world economy might well crumble

 

The U.S. dollar will continue to go down in value, and savers will be losers.