07/15/2009：市場評論

07/15/2009：市場評論

慘烈的軋空行情。證明了上周的快速深幅下跌是一個大的Bear Trap。

ES在ET 8：30am帶罕見量11K+上揚確定盤前基調。SPX跳空10點開盤。全天成有規律的（小幅突破，窄幅盤整）的穩健上漲形態。在ET 3pm突破前期阻力線931，然後窄幅橫盤至收盤。

INTC開盤在歐洲交易收盤的+6%，17.99，開盤就突破
AAPL開盤在主要阻力線145
CSCO跳空開盤在50SMA之上
MSFT跳空開盤在20SMA之上
GOOG/AMZN也是跳空開盤

GS開盤就越過了主要阻力線150
IBM在上周Bear Trap連續探測100SMA並獲得支撐，今天跳空開盤在20/SMA和50SMA之上，光頭光腳大陽線
BAC剛剛穩定在200SMA上，可能會走出JNJ的行情，也就是穩定在200SMA後，立刻連續上漲。
JPM跳空開盤在50SMA之上

指數和個股全天都是（小幅突破，窄幅盤整）的穩健上漲形態。日線圖上今天的向上跳空大漲使得DJI/NDX/SPX都是明顯的島型反轉。7月2日向下跳空下跌至昨天7月14日共8個交易日組成深幅島型Bear Trap。

ES在股市收盤前5分鍾放出112k個合約的巨量，實屬罕見，而且全天Regular時段的5分鍾成交量絕大多數不超過15k和30k。這個5分鍾成交把ES從930.25打低到928.25，而全天ES最高為40分鍾之前的930.75。這令人推測下麵OE前的兩天會有（至少日內）較大波動，方向則不明。所以要平倉所有這周OE的Call。

ES在股市收盤後Reopen有3k成交量和5k成交量兩個打低動作。

GS/AAPL/INTC創3月份上漲以來的新高，預示著後市可期。

這是一個新的Up Trend的起始，SPX要突破950，下一站1000。

PS：

今日XLNX 跳空開盤放量陰線。+0.83，日成交量11.2M。盤後ER，-1.06，AH成交量98k。從成交量12.2M。

JPM盤後上漲0.34，成交量1.3M，日總成交量83.9M。

下麵關注點：明天星期四盤前JPM ER，盤後GOOG/IBM ER；後天星期五OE day盤前C/BAC/GE ER。

XLNX ER：

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Chip maker Xilinx Inc. said Wednesday its first-quarter profit declined 56 percent, hurt by restructuring charges and lower revenue.

For the three months ended June 27, the company earned $38 million, or 14 cents per share, down from $86.3 million, or 31 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier. The latest quarter's results include charges totaling 7 cents per share. Excluding items, the company would have earned 21 cents per share.

Revenue fell 23 percent to $376.2 million from $488.2 million.

Analysts, on average, were expecting a profit of 19 cents per share on sales of $381.4 million, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. Analysts typically exclude one-time items from their estimates.

The company said it expects sales to grow about 2 percent to 6 percent sequentially. Analysts, on average, are predicting sales of $381.9 million for the fiscal second quarter, a decline of less than 2 percent.

Shares fell $1.12, or 5.4 percent, to $19.54 in after-hours trading. The stock had closed up 83 cents, or 4.2 percent, at $20.66 amid a broader market rally following strong quarterly results from chip maker Intel Corp.