闖蕩華爾街
有多少愛可以重來 有多少人值得等待 因我自橫刀向天笑 故我自立馬冷眼瞧
正文
12/11/2007:Federal Open Market Committee可以隨便改變wording?
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates today and lay the groundwork for more to prevent the economy from sliding into recession.
The Federal Open Market Committee will be loath to repeat language from its last meeting that risks between inflation and growth are ``roughly'' balanced, economists said. Keeping the phrase would open officials to criticism they're oblivious to the credit squeeze that's threatening growth.
``They pretty much tried to draw a line in the sand by going to a balanced-risks statement at the last meeting, and now the world's changed,'' said Keith Hembre, who used to work at the Fed and is now chief economist in Minneapolis at FAF Advisors Inc., which manages $105 billion. Officials will ``leave themselves the opening'' for further cuts, he said.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to steer through the housing recession that entered its third year and alleviate a jump in borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The FOMC will lower the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent, according to 115 of 124 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Seven anticipate a half-point move and two see no change.
Officials may also enhance their efforts at providing a backstop for bank funding amid a surge in demand for cash, some economists said. Options include reducing the charge for direct loans to banks by half a point, to 4.5 percent.
Most Since Recession
The Fed, which began meeting at 8 a.m. in Washington, is scheduled to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. A quarter- point rate cut, after 0.75 percentage point of reductions in September and October, would mark the greatest easing of borrowing costs since the last recession in 2001.
Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn recognized in speeches last month a deterioration in credit markets that jeopardizes lending to businesses and consumers, threatening spending. That was a shift from the Oct. 31 statement, when officials signaled they were reluctant to do more. (幾天之內就可以改變看法?是game?是有意還是無意?美聯儲的這種遊戲何時休？)
``The reality is, markets have gotten worse in a way they couldn't have expected, and they've gotten worse to a point where there are legitimate concerns that it will spill over to the macroeconomy,'' said Vincent Reinhart, who was Bernanke's chief staff adviser on monetary policy before leaving in September to join the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ``Not acting would be too much of a surprise.''
Futures Trading
Traders estimate a 40 percent chance of a half-point reduction today, with a quarter-point fully discounted, according to futures prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade. (告訴我，怎麽 futures prices可以得知Traders estimate a 40 percent chance of a half-point reduction？)
Richard Kovacevich, chairman of Wells Fargo & Co., the second-biggest U.S. home lender, said in an interview that he expects the Fed to cut the main rate by a quarter-point and the discount rate by a half to three-quarters of a point. Kovacevich represents the San Francisco Fed district on a bankers' council that advises Fed officials.
Economists including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and the chief U.S. economists of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. predicted a recession in the past month as strains in credit markets increased.(一個月之內全轉向了！recession需要至少18個月的確認，一個月的變化有關係麽？)
``It's conceivable that we entered a recession in the fourth quarter of this year,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago and a former Fed economist. ``It's going to be a soft holiday sales season,'' he added, predicting the unemployment rate will climb to 5.6 percent next year from 4.7 percent last month. (劃線的話有什麽根據？是否一個月後又變了？)
The collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market has led Citigroup Inc., Merrill and other banks and securities firms around the world to write down about $76 billion of losses and markdowns this year.
Seven-Year High
Concern about the mounting losses diminished banks' willingness to lend cash to each other, sending funding costs higher. The three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate climbed to as high as 65 basis points more than the Fed's benchmark rate last week. That's the widest spread, except for on Sept. 18 when the Fed cut rates, in seven years.
Yields on two-year Treasury notes dropped as low as 2.79 percent on Dec. 4, the lowest since November 2004, as investors flocked to the perceived safety of government debt.
The scarcity of cash comes at a time when banks typically conserve funds to buttress balance sheets before closing their books for the year.
The Fed's New York branch said Nov. 26 it planned a series of repurchase agreements extending into 2008 to help fill cash shortages. Stephen Cecchetti, a former New York Fed research chief, said officials may consider further steps, such as extending discount-rate loan terms to 90 days, from 30. The outstanding loans rose to the highest since September last week.
`Grit My Teeth'
``If I backed myself into this position, I would grit my teeth and just cut, big time,'' said Cecchetti, who is now a professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Some Fed officials indicated heightened concern inflation would quicken, before Bernanke and Kohn spoke two weeks ago. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Nov. 27 that price expectations may increase because of the rate cuts. Kansas City Fed Bank President Thomas Hoenig dissented in favor of unchanged rates at the Oct. 30-31 meeting.
Any attempt to signal that inflation and growth risks are similar would be out of step with the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, which highlighted concerns about financial markets when they cut rates last week. The U.K. central bank on Dec. 6 echoed its Canadian counterpart from two days before in citing ``downside'' risks to consumer prices.
``Inflation risks are present, but it is very hard to argue they are on par with growth risks,'' said Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former researcher at the Fed. ``We'll see a more flexible message, more attuned to the downside growth risks.'' (Inflation已經是不爭的事實！物價上漲，美元大幅貶值，美聯儲的目前的政策就是鼓勵或故意使美元貶值，各大公司的writeoff/markdown都是通過美聯儲印發美元買單，從而引發通脹把損失轉嫁到了國際美元儲備持有者的身上！不要忘了美聯儲是私人機構，它代表美國的各大財團。)
Greenspan坦承他是在房屋市場泡沫化兩年後才發現問題.美聯儲下麵有一大堆專業的研究機構。關於一些問題的看法都會有比較明確的看法，而且會有詳細的論據，即使看法事後被證明是錯誤的。
像這樣幾天之內改變關於加息減息這種異常重大決定的論調，唯一的解釋就是故意誤導市場。看看10/31日後的市場走勢！
誰以為伯南克不如格林斯潘，就是天大的笑話了。這幫人長年累月在一起，都是半斤八兩，誰上台不過是政治鬥爭的結果。羅傑斯不是出書公開指責格林斯潘從1999年起製造股市泡沫不過是為了挽救long term capital?還有其80年代上台沒幾天就弄了個87大股災，然後為了保住美聯儲主席的職位而舔著臉到國會上下lobby?
股市是最肮髒也是最公平的地方！
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates today and lay the groundwork for more to prevent the economy from sliding into recession.
The Federal Open Market Committee will be loath to repeat language from its last meeting that risks between inflation and growth are ``roughly'' balanced, economists said. Keeping the phrase would open officials to criticism they're oblivious to the credit squeeze that's threatening growth.
``They pretty much tried to draw a line in the sand by going to a balanced-risks statement at the last meeting, and now the world's changed,'' said Keith Hembre, who used to work at the Fed and is now chief economist in Minneapolis at FAF Advisors Inc., which manages $105 billion. Officials will ``leave themselves the opening'' for further cuts, he said.
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to steer through the housing recession that entered its third year and alleviate a jump in borrowing costs for companies and consumers. The FOMC will lower the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 4.25 percent, according to 115 of 124 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Seven anticipate a half-point move and two see no change.
Officials may also enhance their efforts at providing a backstop for bank funding amid a surge in demand for cash, some economists said. Options include reducing the charge for direct loans to banks by half a point, to 4.5 percent.
Most Since Recession
The Fed, which began meeting at 8 a.m. in Washington, is scheduled to announce its decision at about 2:15 p.m. A quarter- point rate cut, after 0.75 percentage point of reductions in September and October, would mark the greatest easing of borrowing costs since the last recession in 2001.
Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn recognized in speeches last month a deterioration in credit markets that jeopardizes lending to businesses and consumers, threatening spending. That was a shift from the Oct. 31 statement, when officials signaled they were reluctant to do more. (幾天之內就可以改變看法?是game?是有意還是無意?美聯儲的這種遊戲何時休？)
``The reality is, markets have gotten worse in a way they couldn't have expected, and they've gotten worse to a point where there are legitimate concerns that it will spill over to the macroeconomy,'' said Vincent Reinhart, who was Bernanke's chief staff adviser on monetary policy before leaving in September to join the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ``Not acting would be too much of a surprise.''
Futures Trading
Traders estimate a 40 percent chance of a half-point reduction today, with a quarter-point fully discounted, according to futures prices quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade. (告訴我，怎麽 futures prices可以得知Traders estimate a 40 percent chance of a half-point reduction？)
Richard Kovacevich, chairman of Wells Fargo & Co., the second-biggest U.S. home lender, said in an interview that he expects the Fed to cut the main rate by a quarter-point and the discount rate by a half to three-quarters of a point. Kovacevich represents the San Francisco Fed district on a bankers' council that advises Fed officials.
Economists including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and the chief U.S. economists of Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. predicted a recession in the past month as strains in credit markets increased.(一個月之內全轉向了！recession需要至少18個月的確認，一個月的變化有關係麽？)
``It's conceivable that we entered a recession in the fourth quarter of this year,'' said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at the Northern Trust Co. in Chicago and a former Fed economist. ``It's going to be a soft holiday sales season,'' he added, predicting the unemployment rate will climb to 5.6 percent next year from 4.7 percent last month. (劃線的話有什麽根據？是否一個月後又變了？)
The collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market has led Citigroup Inc., Merrill and other banks and securities firms around the world to write down about $76 billion of losses and markdowns this year.
Seven-Year High
Concern about the mounting losses diminished banks' willingness to lend cash to each other, sending funding costs higher. The three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate climbed to as high as 65 basis points more than the Fed's benchmark rate last week. That's the widest spread, except for on Sept. 18 when the Fed cut rates, in seven years.
Yields on two-year Treasury notes dropped as low as 2.79 percent on Dec. 4, the lowest since November 2004, as investors flocked to the perceived safety of government debt.
The scarcity of cash comes at a time when banks typically conserve funds to buttress balance sheets before closing their books for the year.
The Fed's New York branch said Nov. 26 it planned a series of repurchase agreements extending into 2008 to help fill cash shortages. Stephen Cecchetti, a former New York Fed research chief, said officials may consider further steps, such as extending discount-rate loan terms to 90 days, from 30. The outstanding loans rose to the highest since September last week.
`Grit My Teeth'
``If I backed myself into this position, I would grit my teeth and just cut, big time,'' said Cecchetti, who is now a professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Some Fed officials indicated heightened concern inflation would quicken, before Bernanke and Kohn spoke two weeks ago. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said Nov. 27 that price expectations may increase because of the rate cuts. Kansas City Fed Bank President Thomas Hoenig dissented in favor of unchanged rates at the Oct. 30-31 meeting.
Any attempt to signal that inflation and growth risks are similar would be out of step with the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, which highlighted concerns about financial markets when they cut rates last week. The U.K. central bank on Dec. 6 echoed its Canadian counterpart from two days before in citing ``downside'' risks to consumer prices.
``Inflation risks are present, but it is very hard to argue they are on par with growth risks,'' said Brian Sack, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former researcher at the Fed. ``We'll see a more flexible message, more attuned to the downside growth risks.'' (Inflation已經是不爭的事實！物價上漲，美元大幅貶值，美聯儲的目前的政策就是鼓勵或故意使美元貶值，各大公司的writeoff/markdown都是通過美聯儲印發美元買單，從而引發通脹把損失轉嫁到了國際美元儲備持有者的身上！不要忘了美聯儲是私人機構，它代表美國的各大財團。)
Greenspan坦承他是在房屋市場泡沫化兩年後才發現問題.美聯儲下麵有一大堆專業的研究機構。關於一些問題的看法都會有比較明確的看法，而且會有詳細的論據，即使看法事後被證明是錯誤的。
像這樣幾天之內改變關於加息減息這種異常重大決定的論調，唯一的解釋就是故意誤導市場。看看10/31日後的市場走勢！
誰以為伯南克不如格林斯潘，就是天大的笑話了。這幫人長年累月在一起，都是半斤八兩，誰上台不過是政治鬥爭的結果。羅傑斯不是出書公開指責格林斯潘從1999年起製造股市泡沫不過是為了挽救long term capital?還有其80年代上台沒幾天就弄了個87大股災，然後為了保住美聯儲主席的職位而舔著臉到國會上下lobby?
股市是最肮髒也是最公平的地方！
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