PFE周末出所謂的壞消息耐人尋味

PFE周末出所謂的壞消息耐人尋味

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061202/pfizer_cholesterol_drug.html?.v=3

從圖形上看，PFE在10/31-11/03日在$26.50支撐線上強勢盤整。11/07星期二突破並收在$27.25支撐線之上。但後來表明這是一個短暫的短線假突破。隨後11/08-11/10接連三個跳空陰線放量破位完成最後一洗。然後11/13開始V型反轉，連續溫和帶量拉高，11/20-11/29強勢窄幅調整，11/30-12/01連續兩個高開高走略微帶量突破。圖形上看非常強勢。PFE/MRK過去一周的強勢帶動了製藥板DRG大陽線W型突破345後兩陽夾一陰窄幅強勢盤整。

目前PFE處於剛有效突破$27.50支撐/阻力線。由於在10/31和11/09有兩個80M日成交量打底，從11/13日星期一開始到12/01星期五為止的三周十三個半交易日強勢上漲構成的非常標準的以11/10星期五為軸心的V型右半部隻是在突破時溫和放量，特別是在11/29的高開低走中陰線，11/30和12/01兩天的高開高走連續強勢突破$27.50也都沒有顯著放量。尤其PFE這一段時間盤前成交很活躍，應該是主力之間大規模換手的跡象。

周末出這種消息耐人尋味，因為這種消息不會（立刻）造成股價的短線波動，主力之間對這個消息早就知道。圖形上看PFE短線有調整要求。最大的可能是12/04星期一走成低開高走下探主要支撐線的反轉陽線。股價最差有可能下探$27，但應不會跌破11/27的最低價$26.75，過去6個交易日這一波的波穀。若日內5分鍾圖沒有止跌跡象而跌到$26.50的話，則可以大膽抄底，因為$26.50會是強支撐：2006/08突破$26.50前回撤過，2006/11跌下$26.50立刻拉了回來。最不濟的情況是$26.50抄進去被套，但$25.50，11/13日的急劇上漲起漲點，會是極強支撐！

PFE曆史上在強勢上漲至2006/07月底準備突破$26.50創新年高時出現過兩周10個交易日的調整。看看這次在突破$28.50創新年高之前是不是也要這樣？PFE兩年年高阻力線是$29。

製藥板DRG看來短線會繼續震蕩。

目前SP500指數的向下調整是由金融板主導。石油板撐盤。金融板BKX可能會再跌一天下探112從而短線組成三連跌再探112支撐線。金融板短線止跌時，製藥板窄幅橫盤震蕩微調，石油板連續走強後調整，共同維持SP500指數在1385以上或1380-1400之間的調整。

Pfizer Ends Cholesterol Drug Development
Saturday December 2, 10:39 pm ET

Pfizer Cutting Off Development of Cholesterol Drug That Was to Be Star of Drugmaker's Pipeline

NEW YORK (AP) -- Pfizer Inc. said Saturday it has cut off all clinical trials and development for a cholesterol drug that was supposed to be the star of its pipeline because of an unexpected number of deaths and cardiovascular problems in patients who used it.

The world's largest drugmaker said it was told Saturday that an independent board monitoring a study for torcetrapib, a drug that raises levels of HDL, or what's commonly known as good cholesterol, recommended that the work end because of "an imbalance of mortality and cardiovascular events."

Pfizer said it is asking all clinical investigators conducting trials to warn patients to stop taking the drug immediately.

The news is devastating to Pfizer, which had been counting on the drug to revitalize stagnant sales that have been hurt by numerous patent expirations on key products.

Just two days ago, Pfizer had said it hoped to file an application with the Food and Drug Administration for approval of torcetrapib by the second half of next year. But on Saturday, the company said the loss of the drug will not affect its financial guidance for 2006.

New York-based Pfizer had expected to sell Torcetrapib in combination with Lipitor, which lowers bad cholesterol and is the company's -- and the world's -- best-selling drug.

According to Pfizer spokesman Paul Fitzhenry, 82 patients taking the combination of torcetrapib died, compared to 51 deaths in the arm of the study where patients were taking Lipitor alone. Each arm of the study had 7,500 patients. Pfizer said that the study didn't raise any questions about Lipitor's safety.

There already had been concerns about Torcetrapib because a study showed it caused an increase in blood pressure. In raising its earnings guidance for the year Thursday the company emphasized that it has 242 research programs and other promising drugs in the pipeline, but analysts remained focused on Torcetrapib and said Pfizer would struggle without it.

Patent expirations will cost the company $14 billion in annual sales between 2005 and 2007, the company said. Lipitor, which had $12.2 billion in sales last year, may lose patent protection by 2010.

Dr. Philip Barter, chairman of the steering committee overseeing the study, said in Pfizer's release that the findings of the data safety monitoring board Torcetrapib were a surprise "in light of prior study results."

"We believed that the study was coming along as expected, and this new information was totally unexpected and disappointing, given the potential benefits of this drug," said Barter, Director of the Heart Research Institute in Australia.