LU(ALU)技術分析(ALA + LU = ALU)

LU(ALU)技術分析(ALA + LU = ALU)

之所以要做LU技術分析，是因為今天LU在交易價格窄幅的情況下，放巨量1B。而其流通盤隻有4.48B。

LU流通盤4.48B，機構持有率48.60%，空頭93.06M, market cap $11.43B。這些數字都不具有什麽特別之處。

ALA流通盤1.31B，機構持有率10.70%，空頭16.97M，market cap $18.23B。也沒有什麽特別之處。

需要注意的是LU和ALA過去四個月的技術走勢基本一模一樣，連續底部拉升四個月。現在都成欲突破狀態。目前的調整都在20SMA之上。ALA平時的換手率相當小，因為此股是歐洲公司的ADR。兼並LU後ALU的成交會很活躍。今天ALA成交量是平常的6/7倍。但說明問題的是LU的巨量1B換手，應為機構的私下協議好的在公開市場上的籌碼轉換。1分鍾圖顯示10-25M的巨量block成交很規則也很均勻。而且這麽大的block成交根本就沒有影響股價。對比LU一般日成交量隻有20-50M，就可以顯示出為什麽這不一般。

巨量有意識地換手後，再加上兩個個股的TA走勢，結論隻有一個：往上大漲！(2009年6月11日加注：結果證明隨後一個月從13.50漲至15最高點)

接著會有消息接連不斷地出來，比如layoff, restructure, department consolidation,patent consolidation,customer database shareing etc.這些都是公司合並後的優勢，要麽省了錢，要麽加強了競爭力。而被laid off的雇員，就成了華爾街股價飆升的犧牲品...

百年老店MD麥道公司被BA波音合並後，連牌子都沒得掛了...
現在輪到了LU，想當年LU多麽風光，如今也隨風而逝了，淪為垃圾股這麽多年，也是沒有辦法的辦法。資本市場的整合也很殘酷。

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/france_alcatel_lucent.html?.v=11

Alcatel Completes Purchase of Lucent
Thursday November 30, 5:41 pm ET
By Laurence Frost, AP Business Writer Alcatel Completes Purchase of Lucent, Creating Telecom Equipment Powerhouse

PARIS (AP) -- Two of the world's biggest telecom gear makers have tied the knot, eight months after France's Alcatel SA announced plans to buy U.S. rival Lucent Technologies Inc. and create a global force that can cash in on hot "triple-play" services offering phone, TV and Internet together.

Thursday's completion of the $11.6 billion, all-stock acquisition, approved by shareholders of both companies on Sept. 7, came after the first meeting of the new combined board in Paris, headquarters to both Alcatel and the new Alcatel-Lucent, which begins operating Friday.

Whether the marriage will be happy is an open question.

"The Lucent-Alcatel merger is going to be difficult at best," said Edward Snyder, wireless technology analyst at Charter Equity Research. "You're blending two cultures and you're doing that on such a huge scale, there have to be layoffs and buyouts and that poisons the atmosphere."

Half of the $1.8 billion in annual pretax savings the partners are promising within three years will be made by cutting about 9,000 jobs, or 10 percent of the combined work force.

Snyder, who called the merger a "Hail Mary pass" by executives unable to produce growth by increasing sales, said the looming job cuts, likely to hit the staff at Murray Hill, N.J.-based Lucent hardest, will keep people from focusing on selling and designing products.

"Their competitors are going to start picking up the slack," Snyder said, with Nortel Networks Corp. a likely beneficiary.

Odon de Laporte, an analyst with Paris brokerage CA Cheuvreux, said "management seems extremely confident in its ability to achieve" the projected savings. He expects Lucent's pension fund, previously a worry for some Alcatel shareholders, to balance its books by the end of the year, after a $2.4 billion deficit at the close of 2005.

"We're rather reassured," he said.

With combined sales of $25 billion in 2005, excluding businesses sold off, Alcatel-Lucent overtakes LM Ericsson AB's $21.6 billion in revenue to control about 18 percent of the fiercely competitive market for telecom gear.

"This combination represents a strategic fit of vision, geography, solutions and people," said Lucent Chief Executive Patricia Russo, formally appointed Alcatel-Lucent CEO during Thursday's board meeting. Outgoing Alcatel boss Serge Tchuruk also stays on as non-executive chairman.

Although the tie-up was billed as a "merger of equals," former Alcatel shareholders control about 60 percent of the combined company, whose shares will trade on Euronext Paris and the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol ALU.

The new 14-member board has six directors from each side and two independent European directors named Thursday: Jean-Cyril Spinetta, chairman and CEO of Air France-KLM, and businesswoman Sylvia Jay, also a director with a French construction materials maker Compagnie de Saint-Gobain and cosmetics maker L'Oreal's British arm.

Analysts say the Alcatel-Lucent product line is well suited to triple-play networks combining Internet, phone and TV, as well as services that blend fixed-line and mobile phone offerings -- another growth area. Orange, France Telecom SA's Internet and mobile arm, plans to roll out Alcatel-Lucent hardware next year allowing customers to use their cell phones at fixed-line prices when at home.

Alcatel has invested heavily in advanced fixed-line networks, said analyst Eric Carballeda of Paris brokerage Aurel Leven, and Lucent has developed switches that allow mobile phone users to move seamlessly between a cellular network and a wireless Internet connection in mid-call.

Their technological fit "will maximize their prospects of winning big contracts in fixed-mobile convergence," said Carballeda.

Building on earlier consolidation in the sector, the combination will also help telecom equipment makers resist growing pressure on prices after a wave of mergers and acquisitions among their customers, the phone network operators. Alcatel agreed to buy Nortel's third-generation UMTS mobile networks earlier this year. Nokia Corp. and Siemens AG announced a joint venture in June, eight months after Ericsson bought Marconi.

Consolidation is "very important for the equipment makers, as they were losing pricing power very quickly," Carballeda said.

Unlike either Alcatel or Lucent alone, the combined company will have a strong, evenly distributed presence around the globe. Europe, North America and Asia each supply close to one-third of revenue, spreading any risk from local economic shocks.

Alcatel-Lucent may look strong on paper, but Russo will have to work hard to integrate Lucent, the proud home of research dynamo Bell Labs, with its French rival and realize the benefits. The task could throw up as many cultural challenges as business problems, as shown by other recent trans-Atlantic mergers, including the 1998 acquisition of Chrysler by Germany's Daimler-Benz.

AP Business Writer Linda A. Johnson in Trenton, N.J., contributed to this report.