2006/08/28 關於市場的隨想

2006/08/28 關於市場的隨想

I think it will go up this week and then down next week.
Rumors on how high AAPL and GOOG could be make me cautious on being too bullish.

The fact that spx has been well above 1290 in the past 8 days and that XLF didn't overract makes me think the market inside is truely strong. Pharmaceutical sector has been super strong, so does oil sector.

I am thinking by the end of sepetmer or early october the market should touch somewhere around the high in early May. Regarding if it can go even higher in Xmas rally, it's beyond the current vision scope.

The thing I am a little bit worried is that the time window doesn't support a short bull run in the next several days. But the market is essentially strong as my method tells.

When both PFE and MSFT reach $29/$28 respectively some time, the market will go bear or a major correction.

金融板一旦（而且正在）突破，指數得要自然地漲一大節。而且金融板目前還不是尖銳地漲。這意味著調整之後，還要漲一次。傳統上，9月是最熊的季節。有點矛盾。但還是尊重看盤經驗吧。
 
交易量對金融板和XOM/GE/PG等股沒有參考價值。這些股的換手率相對極低，而且option open interests很小。完全是操縱市場的杠杆。現在市場總的成交量很小是個問題。但個人感覺問題不是很大，因為去年11月初交易量也不大。如果這次向上突破是帶大量的話，我覺得後市反而要跌了。