當心 '911' 效應及其他

一. 下周一就是"911"了. 它是美國的國難日. 開盤一定會靜默一分鍾以示哀悼. 由於它的特殊性也使它成為一個特別的交易日. 況且稱為"911" 效應.

1. 這一天的市場上下震蕩幅度會很大,伴隨著交易量的增大.
2. 交易會被誇大(Exaggerate.) 漲會漲的更瘋,跌會跌的更慘.
(形象點:跌會"飛流直下三千尺",漲會"飛鵬直上九重天" 當然是誇張的說法了. :-))
3. 不論漲或跌,這天的交易不代表趨勢. 過完這天, 會回歸到正常的趨勢上的.

This is just my observition. Treat it as alert and don't be caught unguard.  Example: "911" in 2002 had a very volatile up wave. But following day back to down trend.

二. First week afer labor day.

通常在這一周如果形成"double bottom" or "double top" pattern, 將會標誌舊趨勢的結束和新趨勢的開始. ( This is one of the reason that I think the down trend will start from next week.) 1984 和1996 年都有類似的情況發生. 這也和周期理論的結果相符. 一般down trend 比較多.

三. Second week after labor day

    The weekly trend will represent the trend to end of October.  This may be not necessary true but be causious!

四. September is the worst trading month in the whole year.

The table below lists (in descending order) the average monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 1,313.32 9/5/06) from 1950 to 2003:

Month Average Return
January 1.6%
Novmber 1.24%
December 1.17%
April 0.96%
March 0.85%
Feburary 0.81%
May 0.63%
July 0.46%
August 0.39%
June 0.32%
October 0.10%
September -0.28%

Happy Trading!