大跌在既, 今天也許是逃命的最後機會!

對大千來說我是新來的. 過去兩個月我隻看不貼. 從各位的文章中我受益非淺. 今天也說兩句算是對大千的一點回饋.

為什麽看跌?

1. S&P 500 從7/17 在1231見底後已連漲了六周, 向上的動力已耗盡. 在9/5 S&P at 1313 Top off. 你可以從最近的 K 線和Price/volume action得到證實.

2. 領漲的Sectors such as SEMI, 金融股開始退縮. NVDA/SNDK/RIMM/AMD/BRCM fail to make further advance and start to pullback significantly. SC/BSC/MS/JPM/WFC/GE already started to decline.

3. Q2 end and Q3 warning period just started. Already had several warnings from builder and retail sector.

4. Inflation fear and economy slow down worry are surfing again.

The least resistance for next two weeks is down.

(Sorry 我中文打的很慢,隻好寫 English)

Today's rally is forming the double top pattern.  Next week the major driving force will focus on down side.

Last FED meeting halted rate (because of slowing down economy and waiting for more data from the market) is not good news. It pushes market higher for sometime and pretty much ran its course already. When majority of wall street MM back from vacation, they will refocus on slowing down economy and uncertainty of infulation. That will start to push market down. Before FED has clear signal of STOP rate hake, inflation is always a hurdle for market to go higher.

9/5 SPX at 1313 is the top we will not see for long time from now.( Until middle of Dec.)

(There are many detail TA to identify 9/5's top and today's double top. But I can not list them all.)

今天也許是最後的逃命機會.

至少要做好準備,以免重大的財務損失.  You can use different strategy to reduce down side risks such as buy puts or 對衝.

Reverse fund QID  is good way to protect your down side if you have bought QQQQ. QID is Ulta Short fund against NDX. Meaning when NDX down, QID will go up. (2 times, 1:2 radio). You can buy it to short NDX. Just like you buy stock.  This is also good for bearish play without option's time decay risks.

Just my two cents.

Happy trading.