股海餘生

股市的觀察,討論. 以股會友.
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我不太成功的市場分析......

(2006-09-12 10:40:29) 下一個
Finacial and Semi again become leading sectors. Semi may gain some strenth from yesterday's news that FSL will go privite. This could become a trend for some Semi Company's buy out.
But it should be a very short term driving force.

GS's Er this morning brought some strenth to financial sector.
and oil price drop stimulate Retail and Home builders and consumer discretionary sectors which are inflation senstive sectors. The money out flow from energy, gold and basic material industry ( metal, steel, copper etc.) to Semi, Retail and consumer disretionary sectors instead of withdraw from the market.(Sector rotation) But I doubt it has another leg up.
More likely the SPX may retest strong hold resistance at 1313-1318 and trigger the down trend from there if test fail.

The take away from my not quite succeful analysis is the carfully analysis of the market situation is good, but you should always prepare to adjust trading tactic based on market condition especially you are in the wrong side of market.

我很欣賞柴兄的一句話:做市場的跟隨者. 雖然應該有自己的判斷, 但還是應該根據市場的情況,及時調整自己的戰術.

總體來講, 我還是認為市場會有一波向下行情,也許時間會晚一點.

Happy Trading.
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