連本人都不敢露麵，怕被追問減稅的錢從哪兒來啊？你本人的稅表呢？
估計結果跟 OBAMACARE BILL 一樣，共和黨內部都通不過
Deficit? What Deficit?
If there's one thing the latest version of the President's plan makes abundantly clear, it's that he has no interest in paying for the tax cuts he's promising. This latest plan is very similar to the one he campaigned on, and that plan was estimated to cost the government $6.2 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade before accounting for economic growth.
Now, there are some small tweaks to the latest plan that will soften the blow a tad. The President raised his proposed top rate from 33% to 35%, which will help. Of course, he also lowered the bottom rate from 12% to 10%, which will hurt. And yes, it's possible that the move from a hard cap on itemized deductions to simply disallowing all deductions other than mortgage interest and charitable contributions may generate more revenue over the next decade, though that's not particularly clear at the moment.
My guess is that when the eggheads at the Tax Policy Center get done scoring the plan, the price tag will come down from $6.2 trillion to something in the neighborhood of $5.5 trillion. And that's where things get interesting.
The Trump administration has made "economic growth" it's rallying cry, and repeatedly stated yesterday that this plan WOULD pay for itself -- all $5.5 trillion of itself -- by generating economic growth. And if you believe that, I've got some magic beans you might be interested in purchasing.
Look at it this way, dropping the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% would cost the government about $2.5 trillion in tax revenue over the next decade. In an article recently published by the Tax Foundation, Alan Cole estimates that in order to pay just for the drop in the corporate rate -- thus ignoring the drop in rates on individuals as well as S corporation and partnership business income -- the economy would have to grow an additional 0.9% each year for the next decade, bringing projected annual growth from 1.9% to 2.8%. The Trump campaign remained adamant yesterday that this plan would produce 3% annual growth, which would be fine, if all you needed to pay for was the corporate rate reduction. But there's more; much more.
When the Tax Policy Center ran the numbers on the previous version of the President's plan, it found that dropping the individual rates -- even after considering the elimination of key itemized deductions -- would cost $1.5 trillion over ten years. And adopting a uniform business rate of 15% on S corporation and partnership income would cost another $900 billion.
So even with the most pie-in-the-sky estimates, the economic growth anticipated from the plan might be enough to cover the corporate tax cuts. That will still leave trillions tacked on to the deficit related to individual and business cuts, which will be a non-starter for every Democrat, and, quite honestly, many Republicans. As a result, the plan posited yesterday has all the potential to unfold into another GOP-on-GOP battle similar to the one we just witnessed with the plan to repeal Obamacare.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin expressed his hope yesterday that Democrats would support the President's tax cuts, but the reality is, once again, the real struggle is going to be getting his own party on board with a plan that adds trillions to the deficit.
The Rich Get Richer
When the Tax Policy Center ran the numbers on the initial Trump tax plan, it determined that nearly 47% of the tax cuts will go to the richest 1%. While the increase in the top individual rate from 33% to 35% should bring that number down slightly, nothing else published yesterday gave any indication that the wealthiest taxpayers won't enjoy a widely disproportionate benefit under the proposed plan, which stands in contrast to Mnuchin's repeated promise that the rich would enjoy "no net tax benefit" under the Trump proposal.
The reasons for the disparity are fairly obvious: when a tax plan reduces the top rate from 39.6% to 35%, while also cutting business tax rates from 39.6% to 15%, those at the high end of the income scale will walk away huge winners, regardless of any offsets found in the plan in the form of limited itemized deductions. Those making more than, say, $700,000 will benefit far more from a 5% reducing in income tax rates -- and a 24.6% reduction in business rates! -- than they can ever be harmed in the form of forfeited itemized deductions.
When the Tax Policy Center crunched the numbers, it determined that the average middle class taxpayer will experience an increase in after-tax income of approximately 2.2% under the Trump plan, while the richest 1% of taxpayers would see their after-tax cash rise by 13.5%.
Of course, this isn't inherently bad; some economists will argue that by putting more money in the hands of business owners and decision makers, businesses will expand, hire more people, pay higher wages, etc... with more income thus trickling down to lower income levels. Where you stand on that position is up to you.
For months, Americans have been promised a phenomenal tax plan offering massive cuts for the middle class and no net benefit for the rich. What I saw yesterday, however, was the policy equivalent of that half-eaten dinner roll, though I suspect this one will ultimately be much more difficult to swallow.
