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男兒何不帶吳鉤 收取關山五十州 – 2008 民主黨“砍拚”(campaign) 歸來

(2008-05-21 07:54:42) 下一個
引子
【唐】李賀
男兒何不帶吳鉤,
收取關山五十州?
請君暫上淩煙閣,
若個書生萬戶侯?
2007, 地球暖化引發全球高度關注,戈爾獲得年度諾貝爾和平獎,次貸金融危機深不見底, 股市沉浮.
2008, 北京奧運,西藏起事,中國同西方全麵爆發輿論戰--大國崛起麵臨新世界觀的考驗. 能源危機加劇,紐約油價高漲至127美元一桶. 緬甸風災和四川汶川8.0地震,罹難人數合計約二十萬.陸港台全力救助四川,世界各國也伸出援手.5月19日起全國哀悼三天. 中國江河水全麵汙染, 昔日魚米之鄉癌症蔓延. …… 2008之後的地球恐怕無法複製中國印度的崛起模式 ……
無法戰勝的希拉裏 (unbeatable Hillary)
所有人都在談論希拉裏,從2000年起,甚至從克林頓還沒下台之前.希拉裏是以勝利者的姿態宣布砍拚的.曆史上沒有一個參選人如此自信.她在宣布砍拚的第一時間就征服了全球主要媒體,大地為之變色.沒有一個女人如此Powerful.放眼美國,沒有一個純種白人男性,黑人男性,或者墨西哥男性可以戰勝她.她是“征服者”希拉裏!“領導者”希拉裏!
天縱英才奧巴馬 (eloquent Obama)
芝加哥有一個社區, 社區裏有一個喜歡演講的社區領袖,他46歲,父親是黑人,母親是白人,和當年的克林頓一樣,有一個收入比他高的讀律師科的太太.那是2007年一個陽光明媚的日子, 他身穿黑色風衣向全國發表了砍拚宣言,他叫Obama.
2008民主黨砍拚
是年1月3日,美國民主黨初選砍拚在IOWA以黨團會議的形式熱烈引爆.世界各地的人們熱烈地投入地球村上唯一的強權國家的民主選戰:一場決定地球上女人和男人,少數族裔人和多數族裔今後一千年共處方式的戰爭打響了!各路各色人等魚貫出場!在這場不流血的砍拚中,欣逢其盛,我為理想一路相挺,義無反顧. 微薄的個體匯入洪流,在曆史轉捩點親身參與了曆史走向。

Image:2008 Democratic Primaries Popular Vote.png

愛州黨團初捷
 
關鍵字男兒何不帶吳鉤 / 青出於藍 
選戰伊始,在民主黨內影響力非凡的希拉裏被視作總統候選人的最可能人選,甚至可能在最初幾個州預選中提前迫使對手出局。奧巴馬競選經理戴維·普洛夫回顧說,在一切勢頭都傾向於希拉裏之時,我們必須盡早擾亂她,防止希拉裏憑借最初4個州獲勝的勢頭擊垮所有黨內對手。而改變這一強勢的策略,就是在選舉中讓選民看到成功希望。預選第一州艾奧瓦州以黨團會議這一形式舉行預選,基層助選工作往往比直選更能決定競選人成敗。奧巴馬陣營利用希拉裏在這一認識上的疏忽,大打基層牌,贏得開門紅。得票隻列第三的希拉裏遭遇重挫。

新州初選翻盤 關鍵字:  希拉裏的眼淚 / 吊詭的民調
克裏的支持 關鍵字第一個大佬 / Clinton's Enemies
Michigan 半價 關鍵字便宜沒好貨 / 獨角戲  
內華達黨團失利 關鍵字破涕為笑浮雲遮蔽眼
希拉裏在新罕布什爾州預選中扳回一城,但由於民主黨預選規定競選人按比例獲得代表名額,而雙方差距非常小,結果兩人獲得同樣
9名代表名額;11天後的內華達州預選,希拉裏勝出6個百分點,但奧巴馬獲得13個代表名額,比她還多一個。奧巴馬高級助手、代表名額事務分析師傑弗裏·伯曼向《華盛頓郵報》解釋其中玄機說,內華達州分成多個選區,各選區代表名額有奇數和偶數之分。在奇數代表名額選區,奧巴馬盡力取勝,以獲得多一名代表名額;而在偶數代表名額選區,如果希拉裏強勢,奧巴馬則爭取做到以微弱劣勢敗選,這樣在按比例分配名額時兩人仍然平分代表數。總體上看,雖然希拉裏多勝,但還是少拿代表名額。讓他們去歡呼勝利,然後我們拿走代表名額。奧巴馬一名助手說

南卡狂勝 關鍵字黑人兄弟 / 支持度特別高
Florida 不懂選舉 關鍵字烏騅馬不肯走遺憾之地;
超級星期二逆境追平 關鍵字加州老中盡稀飯大州與小州
波托馬克河流域十連勝 關鍵字二月攻勢首都人民覺悟高
25超級星期二預選中,奧巴馬麵臨嚴峻挑戰。根據奧巴馬陣營估計,最壞情況下,在加利福尼亞州、紐約州等大州優勢明顯的希拉裏這一天將比奧巴馬多贏下大約100個代表名額;即使是最樂觀預計,奧巴馬也隻能和對方打平手。奧巴馬陣營競選經理普洛夫回憶說,奧巴馬曾考慮集中精力在加州翻盤,給予希拉裏重擊。但經過慎重考慮,他們認為風險太大,決定轉攻被對手相對忽略的小州,如堪薩斯州、愛達荷州。在堪薩斯州,奧巴馬競選團隊比希拉裏陣營早到3個月,到25日投票時,奧巴馬與希拉裏在堪薩斯州的各自陣營工作人員比例已經懸殊到183;在阿拉斯加州,為接近更多選民,奧巴馬競選團隊甚至通過因特網與生活在北極圈的選民溝通。希拉裏一名高級助手在超級星期二前曾宣稱,在小州取勝很難帶來大優勢。然而,事實證明,憑借奧巴馬在小州積累的代表名額,希拉裏在大州的優勢被一下子抹掉。在愛達荷、佛蒙特、內布拉斯加、密西西比等9個小州,奧巴馬贏下118個代表名額,遠超希拉裏的57個;在人口870萬的大州新澤西,希拉裏雖勝,但按比例隻比奧巴馬多獲11個代表名額,而奧巴馬則在人口僅150萬的愛達荷州取得大勝,按懸殊優勢比例多贏12個名額。  

德俄大戰 關鍵字:  10 萬誌願者, 88 小時 88 縣掃票 / 競選機器馬力強
淩晨 3 點鍾的電話 關鍵字:  / 經驗主義 / 激怒 Obama; 
德州黨團勝利 
關鍵字憤怒的公牛人民力量
Wyoming 黨團再勝 關鍵字轉折關頭 / 黨團常勝
分裂的密西西比 關鍵字中興之役這裏的老鄉有點黑
神父門和草根門 關鍵字信仰危機 / 認同考驗
花落賓州 關鍵字傲慢與偏見 / 最後的高潮
關島有人家 關鍵字隻多了 7 最遙遠的支持
連贏接下來的10場預選後,逐漸掌握優勢的奧巴馬一度麵臨希拉裏在得克薩斯、俄亥俄和賓夕法尼亞等三大州的連勝局麵。此時,奧巴馬的精確瞄準手段依舊發揮重要作用。由於得州預選先後舉行直選和黨團會議兩種形式,奧巴馬將主要精力集中在希拉裏陣營相對忽略的黨團會議上。結果,希拉裏雖然贏下最先舉行的直選,但稍後的黨團會議卻給了奧巴馬更多代表名額,最終以99人的代表總數超過對手5票。 
Indiana North Carolina 關鍵字真正的決戰重獲信任
超級代表選邊 關鍵字大佬們終於來了克嫂的稻草 
West Virgina
也瘋狂 
關鍵字: Despearated Hillary / 個人與政黨
Edwards 背書 關鍵字遲來比不來強藍領領袖
Kentucky 2:1 關鍵字:  KFC雞肋之爭頑抗到底
Oregon 扳回一城 關鍵字送走 Hillary / 迎向 McCain 
Party committee 關鍵字幻滅團結還是分裂
通往勝利途中,奧巴馬曾遇到最後一關危險地帶。希拉裏在賓州獲勝後,一係列民調顯示奧巴馬在接下來的印第安納州、西弗吉尼亞州、肯塔基州和美國聯邦領地波多黎各將遭遇失敗。奧巴馬助手擔心,這些失敗可能使勢頭轉向希拉裏。而一旦對手重獲領先,還未作出表態的超級代表們可能在最後關頭一邊倒地支持希拉裏。意識到在某些州劣勢難改,奧巴馬幹脆回避西弗吉尼亞和肯塔基兩州。助手說,如果奧巴馬這種情況下還與希拉裏迎麵對抗,然後輸掉預選,那麽他的慘敗可能給予希拉裏更多動力。在印第安納州和北卡羅來納州預選中,奧巴馬意外拿下北卡州。當希拉裏還在等待印州加裏選區的最終計票結果時,奧巴馬的獲勝講話正在被電視媒體大篇幅報道,希拉裏稍晚宣布的勝利氣氛一下子被衝淡。
 
避其鋒芒、攻其要害的靈活策略,讓希拉裏一步步喪失優勢,也讓奧巴馬積累越來越強勁勢頭,最終使100多名超級代表一邊倒地傾向自己,鎖定勝局。 

Puerto Rico, Montana,  South Dakota — 關鍵字: 
收取關山五十州/會當同飲慶功酒

尾聲
5月21日,Clinton: Neither candidate has reached 'magic number'
一個星期前,泰晤士報:希拉裏已經結束了!
1st place
delegates earned
Withdrew
prior to contest
Event date ↓ Location ↓ Uncommitted[1]Hillary
Clinton
Barack
Obama
Mike
Gravel
John
Edwards
Dennis
Kucinich
Bill
Richardson
Joe
Biden
Chris
Dodd
01/03/2008 January 3Iowa 01 Iowa
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 45) [A] [B]
0%[ 15 ]
29%
[ 16 ]
38%
0%[ 14 ]
30%
0%2%1%0%
01/08/2008 January 8New Hampshire
primary
Pledged delegates: 22
9
39%
13
9
36%
0%4
17%
1%5%0%0%
01/15/2008 January 15Michigan
primary
Pledged delegates: 64 (was 128)
due to 5/31 penalty from DNC
[6]
55
40%
34½
73
55%
29½

0%4%1%
01/19/2008 January 19Nevada 01 Nevada
precinct caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 25) [A] [B]
0%[ 12 ]
51%
[ 13 ]
45%
0%4%0%
01/26/2008 January 26South Carolina
primary
Pledged delegates: 45
12
27%
33
25
55%
0%8
18%
0%0%0%0%
01/29/2008 January 29Florida
primary
Pledged delegates: 92½ (was 185)
due to 5/31 penalty from DNC
[6]
52½
105
50%
38½
67
33%
0%
13
14%
1%1%1%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Alabama
primary
Pledged delegates: 52
0%25
42%
27
56%
1%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Alaska 01 Alaska
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 13) [A] [B]
0%[ 4 ]
25%
[ 9 ]
75%
02/05/2008 February 5American Samoa
caucus
Pledged delegate votes: 3
2
57%
1
42%
0%
02/05/2008 February 5Arizona
primary
Pledged delegates: 56
31
50%
25
42%
0%5%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Arkansas
primary
Pledged delegates: 35
1%27
70%
8
26%
0%2%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5California
primary
Pledged delegates: 370
204
51%
166
43%
0%4%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Colorado 01 Colorado
precinct caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 55) [A] [B]
1%[ 20 ]
32%
[ 35 ]
67%
0%0%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Connecticut
primary
Pledged delegates: 48
1%22
47%
26
51%
0%1%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Delaware
primary
Pledged delegates: 15
6
42%
9
53%
1%0%3%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Georgia
primary
Pledged delegates: 87
27
31%
60
66%
0%2%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Idaho 01 Idaho
county caucuses (6/12-14 conv.)
Pledged delegates: 12 (of 18) [A] [B]
3%2
[ 3 ]
17%
10
[ 15 ]
80%
1%
02/05/2008 February 5Illinois
primary
Pledged delegates: 153
49
33%
104
65%
2%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Kansas 01 Kansas
local unit conventions
Pledged delegates: 21 (of 32) [A] [B]
6
[ 9 ]
26%
15
[ 23 ]
74%
0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Massachusetts
primary
Pledged delegates: 93
55
56%
38
41%
0%2%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Minnesota
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 72
1%24
32%
48
66%
0%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Missouri
primary
Pledged delegates: 72
0%36
48%
36
49%
0%2%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5New Jersey
primary
Pledged delegates: 107
59
54%
48
44%
1%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5New Mexico
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 26
0%14
49%
12
48%
1%0%1%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5New York
primary
Pledged delegates: 232
139
57%
93
40%
1%
02/05/2008 February 5North Dakota 01 North Dakota
precinct caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 13) [A] [B]
[ 5 ]
37%
[ 8 ]
61%
1%
02/05/2008 February 5Oklahoma
primary
Pledged delegates: 38
24
55%
14
31%
10%1%2%1%
02/05/2008 February 5Tennessee
primary
Pledged delegates: 68
1%40
54%
28
40%
0%4%0%0%0%0%
02/05/2008 February 5Utah
primary
Pledged delegates: 23
9
39%
14
57%
0%3%0%0%0%0%
02/09/2008 February 9Louisiana
primary
Pledged delegates: 56
1%23
36%
33
57%
3%2%1%
02/09/2008 February 9Nebraska 01 Nebraska
precinct caucuses (6/20-22 conv.)
Pledged delegates: 16 (of 24) [A] [B]
0%5
[ 8 ]
32%
11
[ 16 ]
68%
02/09/2008 February 9U.S. Virgin Islands
territorial convention
Pledged delegate votes: 3
3%7%3
90%
02/09/2008 February 9Washington 01 Washington
precinct caucuses
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 78) [A] [B]
1%[ 26 ]
31%
[ 52 ]
68%
02/10/2008 February 10Maine 01 Maine
municipal caucuses (conv. 5/31)
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 24) [A] [B]
1%[ 9 ]
40%
[ 15 ]
60%
02/12/2008 01 February 5February 12 Democrats Abroad
primary
Pledged delegate votes: 7
0%
32%

66%
1%1%0%0%
02/12/2008 02 February 12District of Columbia
primary
Pledged delegates: 15
0%2
3
24%
13
12
75%
0%0%0%
02/12/2008 03 February 12Maryland
primary
Pledged delegates: 70
1%27
28
36%
43
42
61%
0%1%0%0%0%0%
02/12/2008 04 February 12Virginia
primary
Pledged delegates: 83
29
35%
54
64%
1%0%0%0%
02/19/2008 February 19Hawaii
caucuses
Pledged delegates: 20
0%6
24%
14
76%
0%0%
02/19/2008 February 19Wisconsin
primary
Pledged delegates: 74
0%32
41%
42
58%
0%1%0%0%0%0%
03/04/2008 March 4Ohio
primary
Pledged delegates: 141
74
53%
67
45%
2%
03/04/2008 March 4Rhode Island
primary
Pledged delegates: 21
1%13
58%
8
40%
1%
03/04/2008 March 4Texas 01 Texas
primary
Pledged delegates: 126 (of 193) [B]
65
51%
61
47%
1%0%0%0%
03/04/2008 March 4Texas 02 Texas
precinct conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 193) [A] [B]
0%[ 29 ]
44%
[ 38 ]
56%
03/04/2008 March 4Vermont
primary
Pledged delegates: 15
6
39%
9
59%
1%1%
03/08/2008 March 8Wyoming 01 Wyoming
county caucuses
Pledged delegates: 7 (of 12) [A] [B]
1%3
[ 5 ]
38%
4
[ 7 ]
61%
03/11/2008 March 11Mississippi
primary
Pledged delegates: 33
0%13
37%
20
61%
0%1%0%0%0%0%
03/14/2008 February 19March 14 North Dakota 02 North Dakota
legislative district conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 13) [A] [B]
03/15/2008 March 15Iowa 02 Iowa
county conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 45) [A] [B]
[ 14 ][ 25 ][ 6 ]
03/17/2008 February 20March 17 Colorado 02 Colorado
county assemblies/conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 55) [A] [B]
[ 19 ][ 36 ]
03/29/2008 March 29Texas 03 Texas
county and senatorial district conventions (see 6/6-7)
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 193) [A] [B]
[ 30 ][ 37 ]
04/06/2008 April 4April 6 North Dakota 03 North Dakota
state convention
Pledged delegates: 13 (of 13) [B]
58
04/12/2008 February 23April 12 [7]Nevada 02 Nevada
county conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 25) [A] [B]
[ 12 ]
[ 13 ]
04/22/2008 April 22Pennsylvania
primary
Pledged delegates: 158
85
55%
73
45%
04/26/2008 01 April 5April 26 Washington 02 Washington
legislative district caucuses/county conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 78) [A] [B]
04/26/2008 02 April 26Iowa 03 Iowa
district conventions (see 6/14)
Pledged delegates: 29 (of 45) [B]
9
[ 14 ]
20
16
[ 28 ]
[ 24 ]
4
[ 3 ]
[ 7 ]
05/03/2008 May 3Guam
territorial convention
Pledged delegate votes: 4
2
50%
2
50%
05/06/2008 May 6Indiana
primary
Pledged delegates: 72
38
51%
34
49%
05/06/2008 May 6North Carolina
primary
Pledged delegates: 115
1%48
42%
67
56%
1%
05/13/2008 May 13West Virginia
primary
Pledged delegates: 28
20
67%
8
26%
7%
05/16/2008 May 13May 16 Colorado 03 Colorado
congressional district conventions
Pledged delegates: 36 (of 55) [B]
1323
05/17/2008 May 17Colorado 04 Colorado
state convention
Pledged delegates: 19 (of 55) [B]
613
05/17/2008 May 17Kansas 02 Kansas
state convention
Pledged delegates: 11 (of 32) [B]
05/17/2008 May 17Nevada 03 Nevada
state convention
Pledged delegates: 25 (of 25) [B]
1114
05/17/2008 May 17Washington 03 Washington
congressional district caucuses (6/13-15 conv.)
Pledged delegates: 51 (of 78) [B]
17
[ 26 ]
34
[ 52 ]
05/20/2008 May 20Kentucky
primary
Pledged delegates: 51
2%37
66%
14
30%
2%
05/20/2008 May 20Oregon
primary
Pledged delegates: 52
-21
41%
31
59%
05/24/2008 May 24Alaska 02 Alaska
state convention
Pledged delegates: 13 (of 13) [B]
310
05/24/2008 May 24Wyoming 02 Wyoming
state convention
Pledged delegates: 5 (of 12) [B]
23
05/31/2008 May 31Maine 02 Maine
state convention, (caucus 2/10)
Pledged delegates: 24 (of 24) [B]
915
06/01/2008 June 1Puerto Rico
primary
Pledged delegates: 55
38
68%
17
32%
06/03/2008 June 3Montana
primary
Pledged delegates: 16

2%
7
41%
9
56%
06/03/2008 June 3South Dakota
primary
Pledged delegates: 15
8
55%
7
45%
06/07/2008 June 6June 7 Texas 04 Texas
state convention (see 3/29)
Pledged delegates: 67 (of 193) [B]
06/10/2008 June 1June 10 Nebraska 02 Nebraska
county conventions
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 24) [A] [B]
06/14/2008 June 12June 14 Idaho 02 Idaho
state convention (2/5 caucus)
Pledged delegates: 6 (of 18) [B]
06/14/2008 June 14Iowa 04 Iowa
state convention (4/26 conv.)
Pledged delegates: 16 (of 45) [B]
06/15/2008 June 13June 15 Washington 04 Washington
state convention (5/17 caucus)
Pledged delegates: 27 (of 78) [B]
06/15/2008 June 21 Puerto Rico 04 Puerto Rico
commonwealth convention
Pledged delegates: 0 (of 55) [B]
06/22/2008 June 20June 22 Nebraska 03 Nebraska
state convention (2/9 caucus)
Pledged delegates: 8 (of 24) [B]

政客和媒體
老牌政客的利益是捆綁在一起的,他們組成利益集團,試圖操控媒體,進而影響選情.媒體雖然了解政客的偏好,但是競選者的策略因素加上選民的固執個性,卻使媒體無法準確對選民的想法進行幹預.媒體對選民的態度隻能”不斷揣摩”.
新型領導
Obama漂亮的口號“變革華盛頓”,喊出了砍拚的最強音。人們願意看到美國的政治回到草創時的青蔥年代。於是,平等的領導關係代替了大佬政治. Hillary的經驗主義被摒棄了.所謂競選機器,有老舊的嫌疑. 我以為,經驗主義、草根主義、精英主義必須結合。優秀的新團隊和充滿魅力的領袖相得益彰,團隊無形有力,無往不勝。
民主黨的100%民主
按比例分配選票、黨團會議和超級代表--民主黨擁有複雜的選舉製度。這一切的確體現了民主的多樣化。尤其是古老的黨團會議,稱得上是一種悠久但是原始的民主形式.它是不記名投票之外,有益的民主形式.但是,共和黨的勝者通吃體現了團結一致、少數服從多數的精神,實效其實高於民主黨純粹的民主選舉方式。
選民和民調
民調在08砍拚中的攻守現象非常顯著. 也許同時間(或一次)競選會降低民調的這種影響.象08砍拚這樣類似聯賽的形式, 民調的平衡作用明顯. 民意的反複無常,證明成熟的民主是難以預測的.選民是最有個性的,即使在Hillary大勢已去的最後時刻,政客們紛紛投向勝利者,但是死忠的保守派白人選民,尤其是頑固的白人老年女性仍然給了她排山倒海似的的支持。
和台灣選舉類似的是,各方的基本盤都很穩固,變化的是此消彼長的投票積極性。死忠選民的熱情影響他們是否出來投支持者一票,這部分選民是不容易換邊的。獨立選民、自由派和年輕選民同樣關鍵,他們的高投票率帶來了最大的變數。Obama在這部分選民中的影響造就了他最後的勝利。
不能說的秘密
砍拚本身包含民族(種族)和性別等不能說的秘密。
統計顯示,奧巴馬的支持群體主要是黑人和年輕人。而希拉裏的支持來自女人,老人,西班牙裔和亞裔. Obama 作為黑白混血兒,他在競選之初本意是跨越種族.但是民意難違,必須承認黑人的強力支持是Obama勝選的關鍵;而白人女權主義者則是Hillary最忠誠的同盟.最終兩個競選人被迫屈服於種族和性別的現實.滑稽的是,如果Hillary和白人男性競選(無論民主共和),Hillary將因為性別優勢(而非劣勢)勝出.男性不如女性團結.今時今日,在男性當中要求女性來統治世界的比比皆是,而想統治男性的年長女性又四處可見.然而,反對Hillary的勢力其實一直在尋找機會.最終,憑借種族的團結超越了性別的團結.上演了小眾超越大眾的精彩一幕。
因為Obama的朝氣勇氣,我一路相挺.在曆史的轉折處,我為Obama喝彩;作為男性,我的曆史責任感讓我義無反顧。


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