財經觀察 1764 --- This is not the time to attack China

This is not the time to attack China
By Michael Pettis

Published: February 17 2009 19:57
Last week’s trade numbers from China could not have been more dismal. After declining by 2.8 per cent year on year in December, China’s exports plummeted 17.5 per cent in January, placing huge pressure on the country’s manufacturing sector. Already unemployment in China is surging.

Chinese import numbers are even more dismaying. After dropping 21.3 per cent in December, imports fell a staggering 43.1 per cent in January.

At first glance there seems to be a silver lining in the export numbers: they are not as bad as those reported by some other Asian countries. In December, for example, Taiwan’s exports fell by 42 per cent, South Korea’s by 17 per cent and Japan’s by 35 per cent, capping many months of contraction. Less developed Asian countries also performed worse than China, which suggests China may have increased its competitive edge over its trading rivals. But it is precisely this relative outperformance that indicates the severity of the adjustment yet to take place. China’s trade surplus for January was a mind-blowing $39.1bn (