財經報告之一 --- 2005年在增長減緩的環境發現機遇

《美林證券年度報告》, 坎達斯·布郎寧，丹·盧巴什

 

摘要] 明年，全球經濟的速度很可能減緩。我們的經濟學家認為，2005年全球國內生產總值將大約以3.1%的速度增長，低於今年4%的增長率。而且，除了歐元區外，經濟放慢速度將影響每一個重要的地區，而在歐元區他們則認為將會是平穩的。　　（世經評論·北京）歡迎參閱梅林公司《今後的一年》的年度報告，在這份報告中，我們在全世界的70位戰略師和經濟學家，突出了他們認為將影響2005年各種投資決策的重要課題。
　　
　　
　　貫穿他們思想的主線是這樣的：明年，全球經濟的速度很可能減緩。我們的經濟學家認為，2005年全球國內生產總值將大約以3.1%的速度增長，低於今年4%的增長率。而且，除了歐元區外，經濟放慢速度將影響每一個重要的地區，而在歐元區他們則認為將會是平穩的。
　　
　　
　　增長減緩對投資者意味著什麽？答案之一與現金有關。盡管資產債務表甚至已經得到修複，利潤也已經在不斷地上升，但是，公司都一直對招工和資本開支保持謹慎的態度。結果是，資產債務表上存在著大量的現金，自由資金流的產生也非常強勁。這種狀況正在使愈來愈多的公司迅速以分紅和購買股票活動的方式把現金返回給投資者。我們預計，隨著2005年的展開，這種狀況的勢頭將傾向於不斷地加劇。
　　
　　
　　經濟增長減緩也意味著，增加收入將會變得更為困難。有經驗顯示，在這種情況下，質量應該成為格言。從曆史的角度看，在收入增長率減緩的時候，優質資產的運作狀況都超過低質量的資產。在心中牢記著這一點的情況下，我們認為，一般地說，投資者應該把多餘的現金集中在各公司更優質的資產，並且在所有資產類別和地區都提高防範性和多樣性。
　　
　　
　　依我們之見，在美國資產市場上進行這種運作的最佳方式是，集中在公共事業、消費原材料、防務和能源部門。在固定收入市場上，鑒於有望是低通貨膨脹和更為平穩的收益曲線回落，我們要強調五年償還期的國庫發行票據，可以獲得額外的收入。此外，我們也認為，在全球新興市場上優質公司和所挑選的股票的比例也提供誘人的、經過風險調整後的利潤，因為它們擁有著大量現金的金融狀況。
　　
　　
　　在2005年，美元的表現將對全球經濟活動和世界範圍的金融市場產生重要的影響。由於美國財政赤字和經常項目逆差已經不斷加劇，美元已經走軟了三年。我們預計，在2005年開始之際，美元仍將保持疲軟發態勢，但是，我們認為，投資者應該對可能觸底的發展狀況保持警覺的心態（其中之一可能是中國重新確定其貨幣----人民幣----價值的舉動）。我們的外匯戰略師都認為，美元兌亞洲各種貨幣和墨西哥比索有可能是最為疲軟的，同時，到目前為止，也相當成功地避免了進一步的下跌。在年中的某個時刻，美元有可能會探底，但是此後的回彈則很可能是小幅的。全世界的中央銀行都受到美元的衝擊，因此它們有可能在每次反彈過程中充當起中性的賣家。
　　
　　
　　與此同時，基本的微觀經濟趨勢也正在歐洲開始開創各種富有希望的投資機會。歐洲聯盟正在新成員國之間開拓各種內部需求的機會。我們的戰略師都建議，強調一下各種向東歐消費者開放的西歐資產，尤其在金融服務業方麵更是如此。與此同時，我們的戰略師也都認為，西歐一般的公司（特別是德國的公司），目前正受到愈來愈大的壓力，必須有效地應對各種它們一直麵臨的、來自新加入歐盟的國家的激烈的競爭壓力。這是一服強有力的催化劑，它將推動各種迫切需要的、具有在中期內實現重大增長的微觀經濟改革。
　　
　　
　　歐洲並不是明年很有可能吸引投資者關注的一個唯一的地方。亞洲看來也正在進入一個新的經濟周期，在亞洲，許多國家的內部需求都在不斷增強，也有助於緩解他們經濟免受出口市場更加疲軟的不利影響。該地區的大公司都處於良好的收益狀態：它們已經在最近幾年修複了它們的資產債務表，它們的資產回報率也都正在創曆史新高，而且他們還已經開始把先進返回給股東。我們認為，在金融、消費和工業部門，高產出、高質量的亞洲股票尤其具有光明的前途。
　　
　　
　　全球經濟可能正在減緩速度，但是我們認為，對警覺的和信息靈通的投資者來說，世界仍然充滿了各種機遇。
　　
　　
　　原文：
　　
　　
　　
　　2005 – The Year Ahead
　　Finding Opportunities in a Slower Growth Environment
　　14 December 2004
　　
　　
　　Welcome to Merrill Lynch’s annual Year Ahead report, where our team of more than 70 strategists and economists around the world highlight the key themes that they believe will influence investment decisions in 2005.
　　
　　
　　The thread that runs through their thinking is this: the pace of global economic growth is likely to slow next year. Our economists think that global GDP will increase at a rate of about 3.1% for 2005, down from a 4% rate this year, and that the slowdown will affect every major region except the Eurozone, which they think will be flat.
　　
　　
　　What does slower growth mean for investors? One answer has to do with cash. Even though balance sheets have been repaired and profits have been rising, companies have been cautious in stepping up their hiring and capital spending. As a result, balance sheets are bulging with cash and free cash flow generation is strong. This is prompting more and more companies to return cash to investors in the form of dividends and stockrepurchase activity. We expect this trend to gain momentum as 2005 progresses.
　　
　　
　　Slower economic growth also means that earnings gains will be harder to come by. Experience shows that quality should be the watchword under those circumstances; historically, higher-quality assets outperform lower-quality ones when the rate of earnings growth slows. With that in mind, we think that investors generally ought to concentrate on higher-quality assets of companies with excess cash, and become more defensive and more diversified across asset classes and regions.
　　
　　
　　The best way to do that in the US equity market, in our view, is to focus on the utility, consumer staples, defense, and energy sectors. In the fixed income market, we would emphasize Treasury issues in the five-year maturity range for extra income against what promises to be a low-inflation and flatter-yield-curve backdrop. In addition, we think that the shares of higher-quality companies and selected stocks in Global Emerging Markets could offer attractive risk-adjusted returns because of their cash-rich financial positions.
　　
　　
　　The performance of the US dollar will be an important influence on global economic activity and worldwide financial markets in 2005. The dollar has been weak for three years as the US fiscal deficit and current-account deficit have widened. We expect it to remain weak as 2005 begins, but we think that investors should be alert for developments that could point to a bottom (one would be a move by China to revalue its currency, the renminbi). Our foreign exchange strategists think that the dollar is likely to be weakest against Asian currencies and the Mexican peso, which have held up fairly well against the decline so far. The dollar could reach a bottom sometime in mid-year, but any bounce after that would probably be shallow; central banks around the world are awash in dollars, and they are likely to be natural sellers into any rebound.
　　
　　
　　Meanwhile, fundamental microeconomic trends are starting to create promising investment opportunities in Europe. The continued expansion of the European Union is creating domestic-demand opportunities among the new Member States. Our strategists recommend emphasizing Western European equities with exposure to Eastern European consumers, particularly in the financial services industry. At the same time, our strategists think that Western European companies in general (and German companies in particular) are now under growing pressure to respond effectively to the fierce competitive pressures they have been facing from the new EU entrants. That is a powerful catalyst for much-needed microeconomic reforms that promise to be a major plus in the medium term.
　　
　　
　　Europe isn’t the only place that is likely to attract investors’ attention next year. A new economic cycle appears to be getting under way in Asia, where the growing strength of domestic demand in a number of countries will help to cushion their economies from the adverse effects of weaker export markets. Corporations in the region are in a good position to benefit: they have repaired their balance sheets in recent years, their returns on equity are running at record-high levels, and they already have started to return cash to shareholders. We think that the outlook is particularly bright for high-yielding, higher-quality Asian stocks in the financial, consumer and industrial sectors.
　　
　　
　　The global economy may be slowing, but we think the world is still full of opportunities for alert, well-informed investors.