andwemaygetabouncesoon.Butwehaven\'tseenthebottomyet.Thetechnicalsofthemarketlookverypoor.Thiscorrectionmayturnintothebeginningofanewbearmarket.OnAug16,whensomeofthetechnicalindicatorsIwatchedreachedextremelybearishlevels,Iknewthebottomwasclose.Butthistime,themarketisstillseveralnastysell-offsawayfromthatlevel.Soralliesinthenextseveraldaysshouldbeusedasellingopportunity.
I\'mstillpositiveYTD.B...[閱讀全文]
博文
(2007-11-19 21:57:32)
(2007-11-13 18:49:20)
I\'mverygladtoseethebleedingstoppedtoday.However,bothmystocksanddiversifiedmutualfundsgreatlyunderperformedthemajorindexesinthelasttwodays.Idon\'tviewthisasapositivesign.Ifwedon\'tseestrongeconomicdatainthenextseveraldays,theworryaboutarecessionwillcomebackandthesell-offmaycontinue.Sooncethemarketreboundstops,Iplantoraisemorecashbysellingmorestocks.[閱讀全文]
(2007-11-12 18:06:54)
股市狂跌不止，本想見機再出來一些，可是越等掉得越多，前幾天的strongstocks,突然變成了今天最弱的一群。現在隻希望跌勢能盡快扭轉，thenwecansellintotherallies。
根據以往的曆史，在最強勢的股票受到打擊之後，反彈往往就不遠了。但願曆史還
一樣重複。但是大家期望的yearendrally,可能要等到明年下半年了。這次跟八
月份不一樣，Fed已經沒有多少減息的餘地了，一切得[閱讀全文]
根據以往的曆史，在最強勢的股票受到打擊之後，反彈往往就不遠了。但願曆史還
一樣重複。但是大家期望的yearendrally,可能要等到明年下半年了。這次跟八
月份不一樣，Fed已經沒有多少減息的餘地了，一切得[閱讀全文]
(2007-11-01 22:23:06)
HistoricalprecedentsmostlypointtoagoodperiodforstockinvestmentfromnowthroughtheendofApril.Howeverthedaytodayactioninthestockmarketalwayscarriesmoreweightinourefforttofigureoutthemarketdirectioninthemonthsahead.Whenmarkettops,volatilityalwaysincreases.Thetwosharpsell-offsinthelast10sessionsraiseawarningsign.Ifthesell-offcontinuestomorrow,Iwillturndefensiveandplantocloseallmymargins(I\'m15%inmargin)...[閱讀全文]
(2007-10-25 20:12:52)
Afterrisingfor5weeksinarow,thestockmarketfoundenoughexecusestogetasharpsellofflastweek.Inthelastfoursessions,thebearstriedhardtodrivedownthemarket,butthebullshandledthechallengereallywell.Theybroughttheindexesbackupafterthebears\'everyattempt.WithMSFT\'sgreatearningsreportthisafternoon,andtheFed\'snearcertaincutoftheFedFundsrateby0.25%nextWednesday,thebullsmayfinallyforcethebearsintotheircavestomo...[閱讀全文]
(2007-10-21 21:03:13)
Ihadbeenabulluntilabout11:00amFriday.Afterwinning5weeksinarow,Iwasexpectingapullback.Soupuntilthattime,Iwasstillbuying.Butthelopsidedsellinginthelast2hourschangedmyviewtocertainadegree.Thispullbacknolongerlookslikearegularpullbackinabullmarket.Ithasthepotentialtodragthemarketintoanothercorrectionoritselfmaybethebeginningofabearmarket.Howeveronedaydoesn\'tmakeatrend.Iwillfollowthemarketactionsclose...[閱讀全文]
(2007-10-19 13:27:37)
Watchlist上麵上百個股票，幾乎沒有看到綠色的。除了Nasdaq以外的所有市場指
數又回到了9月18號FED減息那天的水平。由於今天的跌幅很大，可能會對市場心裏
造成影響。我估計IBD對市場的看法可能會從Marketinconfirmedrally改成
“Rallyunderpressure。
Iwillputmybuyplanonholduntilthemarketresumesitsupwardtrend.[閱讀全文]
數又回到了9月18號FED減息那天的水平。由於今天的跌幅很大，可能會對市場心裏
造成影響。我估計IBD對市場的看法可能會從Marketinconfirmedrally改成
“Rallyunderpressure。
Iwillputmybuyplanonholduntilthemarketresumesitsupwardtrend.[閱讀全文]
(2007-10-05 23:38:01)
Thestockmarkethashadaverygoodrunsince8/17/07.It’supin6ofthelast7weeks.Butsincethebeginningof2006,wehavegotone5-weekwinningstreakandtwo4-weekwinningstreaks(includingtheonecurrentlystillrunning).Sotheoddsisagainstustofurtherelongatethestreak.Butgiventhemarketmomentum,it’sstillpossible.However,myguessisthatwewillprobablygetaneventoslightlydownweeknextweek.Ononeortwoofthedays,themarketmayshowsomevol...[閱讀全文]
(2007-09-29 16:29:25)
Thestockmarketiscomingoutofaslump.Thechanceforittocontinuetomovehigherinthemonthsaheadisverygood.Butnoteverysectorisgoingtobenefitequally.Sectorrotationsusuallyhappenduringcorrections.Forexample,small/midcapstocksandvaluestocksdidverywellearlythisyear.ButsincetheFeb-Marchcorrection,theyhavefallenfarbehindthetechsectorandlargecapgrowthstocks.Ifyouchecktheperformancesofthefundsinyour401Kaccount,most...[閱讀全文]
(2007-09-24 17:40:10)
BernieSchaeffer\'sobservationofthevolatilityindicator9/24/07
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Withtherate-cutmysterysolvedforthetimebeing,we\'renowlefttosortthroughconjectureonthetworemainingmeetingsof2007,themarketcanearnestlycontinuetherecoveryfromitsAugustnadir,whichwasdefinedbyclimacticpessimism.Weekslater,thispessimismcontinuestounwind,asexemplifiedbythepricea...[閱讀全文]
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Withtherate-cutmysterysolvedforthetimebeing,we\'renowlefttosortthroughconjectureonthetworemainingmeetingsof2007,themarketcanearnestlycontinuetherecoveryfromitsAugustnadir,whichwasdefinedbyclimacticpessimism.Weekslater,thispessimismcontinuestounwind,asexemplifiedbythepricea...[閱讀全文]
