Misjudged the market

I had been a bull until about 11:00am Friday. After winning 5 weeks in a row, I was expecting a pullback. So up until that time, I was still buying. But the lopsided selling in the last 2 hours changed my view to certain a degree. This pullback no longer looks like a regular pullback in a bull market. It has the potential to drag the market into another correction or itself maybe the beginning of a bear market. However one day doesn\'t make a trend. I will follow the market actions closely in the next severl days. If there is no strong bounce back in the week ahead, we may see more troubles ahead.

Friday is a distribution day for all the major indexes. However, considering it\'s also the options expiration day, the volume was not that heavy in relative terms, which reduced the weighting of the distribution, and will make the potential bounce back easier. In additions, the Fed is going to meet again soon. The futures market is betting 100% chance for a 0.25% cut in the interest rate again. This should provide some support to the market. IBD hasn\'t changed its view about the market either. Market in confirmed rally is still its official view. Based on my observation of IBD\'s actions in the last several years, it has been more accurate in making downturn calls than in upturn calls. I will lighten up my holdings if it switches its offical view in the next several days.

Historically speaking this is the best time to get into stocks. But history doesn\'t always repeat itself in the same fashion. As bullish as I have been, proper caution still needs to exercised.

Go market!