談談美股Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)

目前美國市場長期優秀藍籌股市場估值性價比較高的股票有一大把，Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)是其中之一。

之所以想談談PH，因為幾年以前就多次談論過，而且有一位大千的網友在我的建議下寫過一篇完整的投資分析，我曾經多次轉貼過該篇投資分析。因為這是我們大千的網友寫的，所以我們有一個更好的理由來探討。

首先，過去5年，10年，20年，30年投資PH，都可以取得非常好的投資回報。參考老朽開始投資房產的時間，10萬本金到今天大約是250萬，要是每次金融危機時加一倍金融杠杆，現在也可以有1000萬，理論上這個機會是存在的，在市場低迷時使用一倍金融杠杆的風險要小於出租房平均財務杠杆的風險。

Monday, April 6, 2015 

Stock Analysis -- Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE:PH)

大千網友的投資分析文章是寫在2015年4月6號，在之後的2016年1月市場波動中（石油價格波動），PH與整體市場都出現了一個投資機會，在市場上漲過程中，PH的漲幅超過了１００％，即使是到今天也有７０％的漲幅。

 

 

目前PH的估值比長期均值水平低許多，已經顯示了相當不錯的性價比，在未來的市場波動中，很有可能再次出現入2016年1月這樣級別的投資機會。

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

在大千網友發表PH的投資文章之後，這是第2次市場出現投資機會，所以平均是1.5年一次重大投資機會，如果查看過去20年的股價波動，可以看出平均每二年有一次重大機會。房地產投資能夠每二年出現一次重大投資機會嗎？（至少50%的漲幅。），在今後二十年裏，大致依然是每2年一次重大投資機會，房地產的投資機會能夠達到相同的頻率嗎？PH有未來20年上漲10-20倍的潛質，房價從今天的價格上漲10-20倍的可能性有多大。

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

在現實中，有許多人更適合做房地產投資，但是一個合格的股市投資者是沒有任何理由去羨慕出租房生意的。

我要再強調一次，有許多人更適合做房地產投資，這是客觀事實，不要浪費精力探究股市房產哪個更好，對個人而言，最適合的隻有一個。

PH在過去二十年出現了多次的好的投資機會，在今後二十年也將出現多次的投資機會，但是我們隻可能在實戰中把握其中的2，3機會，但是已經足夠了，這是查理芒格的投資經驗總結。

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it ? who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way ? I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane.

The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights. So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple. 

這裏我使用了投資TD銀行一樣的投資思想和策略，所以我投資加國市場可以成功，如果我投資美國市場也可以用同樣的方法取得同樣的成功，就是到了A股市場，也是一樣的結果。

因為“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

 

 

長期投資中的複利投資

 (2017-03-14 13:24:24)下一個

Parker-Hannifin Corporation是美國的著名長期紅利藍籌股，從1985年至今，年均回報是12.88%。如果隻是單獨的看12.88%的回報，是非常普通的，大約是每個月1%， 這比起不少人一天或幾分鍾的百分之幾十的回報，實在是微不足道，但是一個普通的投資者如果能有機會堅持長期的投資於這樣一個投資回報微不足道的股票，卻可以得到非常理想的結果，這裏就體現了複利在長期投資中的威力。老巴的長期投資成績是年均20%多一些，這個成績已經可以使他問鼎世界首富了。

像PH這樣成功的長期紅利藍籌股在美國市場是很多。

這裏的網友bigcatwx曾經在二年前在我的提議寫過一篇關於PH的分析文章，當時他提出的投資價位是105-110之間。

Monday, April 6, 2015

Stock Analysis -- Parker-Hannifin Corporation (NYSE:PH)

 

Parker (NYSE: PH) is a global leader in motion and control technologies, providing precision-engineered solutions for a wide variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. Parker can be found on and around everything that moves, including aerospace, climate control, electromechanical, filtration, fluid and gas handling, hydraulics, pneumatics, process control, sealing and shielding.

PH's Industrial business makes valves, pumps, filters, seals and hydraulic components for a broad range of industries, as well as pneumatic and electromechanical components and systems. It has two segments -- Industrial North America (43% of FY 2014 sales and 51% of operating profits) and Industrial International (40% and 33%). Sales through distributors account for about half of PH's total industrial business.

The third segment is Aerospace (17% of sales and 15% of segment operating profits) which primarily makes hydraulic, pneumatic and fuel equipment used in civilian and military airframes and jet engines.
It is noticeable that for Parker, replacement part sales are generally more profitable than original equipment sales.

A friend asked me to do an analysis of this stock, I look into the company and immediately attracted by its strong cash flow, healthy earnings per share, and organic dividend growth. As usual, I'll use my stock purchase criteria as the analysis basis.
 

PH is one of David Fish's dividend champion, with 58 consecutive years of higher dividends. Facing looming economic environment due to oil & gas low prices and strong US dollars, people tended to worried about dividend payment prospect of companies at large.  As for PH, Chairman of the Board Donald Washkewicz re-assured investors with the company's top priority as to maintain their dividend increases.  Here is what Mr. Washkewicz said at the recent earnings call:-

Our capital allocation priorities remain the same, as they have been in the past, with our top priority to maintain our dividend increases. As you know, our dividends have been raised for 58 consecutive years. We have increased the dividend 31% this year. We announced that last quarter. And we've raised dividends 150% in the last five years. So you can see that the priority that we've put on dividends is significant.

S&P Capital IQ quality ranking is a favorable "A", and Morning Star offers an above-average 3-star rating. Analysts' risk assessment at S&P Capital IQ is "Medium" with below comments:-

Our risk assessment reflects the highly cyclical nature of the company's industrial and aviation markets, volatile energy and materials costs, and a competitive environment. This is offset by our view of PH's favorable earnings and dividend track record, as indicated by its well-above-average S&P Quality Ranking of A.

PH's beta is 1.69, reflecting its highly cyclical nature of the company's industry. It is also seen from below stock price history that PH is much more volatile than its competitor Honeywell (NYSE: HON), not to mention compared to S&P 500.  After analyzing key regional market trends and segment trends, Chairman of the Board Donald Washkewicz is optimistic about Parker's outlook by saying, "yes, there is some headwinds that we have, but the nice thing is, as Parker is so broad based in so many different market segments, there's some nice tailwinds as well that are offsetting some of the headwinds that we are seeing."

(Data based on Google data)

Parker's current dividend yield is 2.10%, lower than my 3% criterion.  However, PH's dividend growth rate (DGI) is pretty high, with 10-year average DGI at 15.1%, and 5-year average at 15.7%.  At these fast average growth speeds, it will take PH around 12 years to reach annual return 10%.  With such high DGI, Chowder number is attractively calculated at 17.8%.

Currently PH's dividend payout ratio is only 28.50%, which leaves a large room for further dividend increases.


(Data based on Yahoo data)


Parker's EPS growth is healthy and stable, well above dividend payments. Free cash flow remain healthy and strong, from the Q2 earnings release,  Mr. Washkewicz made these impressive comments regarding free cash flow, "We expect fiscal 2015 to be our 14th consecutive fiscal year, where cash flows exceed 10% of sales and we're very pleased with that record performance as well. In addition, this is also expected to be our 14th consecutive fiscal year, where free cash flow is greater than net income."
 

(Data based on MorningStar)

Parker is very aggressive at share buyback program.  In last October PH announced a new authorization for the purchase of $2 billion to $3 billion in shares over two years. Until the second quarter ended in Dec, the company has purchased a total of $1.2 billion shares since the October announcement. The average price that they paid for the $1.2 billion was $126.5. And the ending share count at the end of the quarter was 148.7 million.

While they continue to look for strategic acquisitions going forward, $2 billion is their committed minimum amount for the share repurchases, as confirmed by the newly elected CEO Thomas Williams.  If we review the history, PH's outstanding shares has dropped from 180 mil shares in 2005 to 150 mil shares TTM.
It is noticeable that Parker issued $1.5 billion long-term bond in November; proceeds from the bond issuance were used to fully repay commercial paper outstanding in the amount of $702 million.  The additional incremental stock buybacks will mainly be funded through operating cash flow.  Given current long-term debt to equity ratio at 47% (MorningStar data), I am not too worried about this bond issuance.

The fact I like PH most is about its business model & products character that "replacement part sales are generally more profitable than original equipment sales."  This gives PH a lot of resilience no matter the macro economy is going upwards or downwards.  On the one hand, if economy goes up to north, new OEM projects and net sales will be surely expected.  On the other hand, even if economy goes towards south, the company's replacement part sales will instead increase compared to regular says and a certain profit level is kind of warranted.

S&P Capital gives PH the 12-month target price at $153, fair value price at $131.90, and a "buy" recommendation. The analysts believe $153 target price is warranted given their view of PH's operating leverage potential and strong free cash flow generation track record. Yahoo's 1 year target price on this stock is $130.  Current market price is $118 (on 04/02/15), which is about 9.2% discount.  I would plan to add in some PH shares when market price reaches around $110, which offers me comfortable safety margin and decent upward cushion.

http://moneyunbinding.blogspot.ca/2015/04/stock-analysis-parker-hannifin.html