中國是龍，美國是鷹，英國是獅子? ? Hell, no relationship in the natural food chain - serious? No brain saying such thing, misleading and creating a wrong image in the public. Damn it. These animals (龍，鷹，獅) live in their own niches, their own kingdom - they're not dependent. In fact, history tells you they did fight and ended up with sitting around the round table to talk over for their common good. Now, else now?
Really? That's bullshit - none of those is like these symbols, but the collection of human beings, sinful with limitation.
Sound simple, but elites got so wrong all of current events, really out of control. If you're the captain, you can't control your ship - What's your use? You're No captain. Both Xi and Trump control their perspective ship thus far. Now, let;s see their tango on the global stage. Heckuva show, but brutal, cruel for the public without power to control their own faith.
Never trust elites, they evolve with the wind, as like fence seaters. Predict future? not a chance. Unpredictable will be a new norm. Watch out.
May God grant peace on earth by forgeting human's sin - such sinful nature.
中國是龍，美國是鷹，英國是獅子? Tango goes on
|| 推薦到群組
中國是龍，美國是鷹，英國是獅子? ? Hell, no relationship in the natural food chain - serious? No brain saying such thing, misleading and creating a wrong image in the public. Damn it.
Really? That's bullshit - none of those is like these symbols, but the collection of human beings, sinful with limitation.
Sound simple, but elites got so wrong all of current events, really out of control. If you're the captain, you can't control your ship - What's your use? You're No captain. Both Xi and Trump control their perspective ship thus far. Now, let;s see their tango on the global stage. Heckuva show, but brutal, cruel for the public without power to control their own faith.
Never trust elites, they evolve with the wind, as like fence seaters. Predict future? not a chance. Unpredictable will be a new norm. Watch out.
Reference: New York Times
Damir Sagolj/Reuters
習近平在人民大會堂唱國歌。與特朗普不同，習近平極少即興講話。
北京——兩人上台的時候都誓言要恢複國家的偉大榮光。但是作為政治人物，美國這位喧鬧的、喜歡即興發揮的候任總統唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和中國那位有城府、言行審慎的國家主席習近平形成了鮮明的對比，給兩國政府之間的關係注入了新的不可預測性。
“在美中關係這出大戲裏，我想不出有比這更截然不同的兩個人物了，”前國家安全委員會亞洲事務高級主管的埃文·S·梅代羅斯(Evan S. Medeiros)在電郵中說。“在國際關係中，特別是在大國之間，人的個性很重要。”
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Johannes Eisele/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
上周，上海的一個報刊亭在售賣以特朗普為封麵的雜誌。
中國扣留美國海軍一艘無人潛航器所引發的爭執，讓人初步看到，如果圍繞特朗普提出的南海、貿易不平衡、朝鮮核武器等問題出現更嚴重的緊張局勢，特朗普和習近平的不同風格會如何發揮作用。
特朗普最近向中國發出大聲警告，似乎是在遵從本能反應和一係列模糊而大膽的要求。相比之下，作為共產黨元老之子，習近平有一種不露聲色的強硬。他很少在公開場合即興講話。即使是一些看似即興的手勢，實則也往往經過了精心編排，而且他在與外國領導人會麵時往往緊守政策要點。習近平當然也會采取大膽行動，正如他在南海所展示的那樣，但他傾向於把他的想法隱藏在大量口號之中。讓外人摸不透他會在何時、以何種方式就他的需求采取行動。
康奈爾大學(Cornell University)研究中國外交政策的副教授白潔曦(Jessica Chen Weiss)說：“情況可能會變得一點就著。”
“在公開聲明中，習近平表現得比唐納德·特朗普更加審慎，但中國政府可能會強烈反對任何挑戰現狀的激烈行動，” 白潔曦說。“為了我們的國家安全，特朗普的顧問們最明智的做法應該是對特朗普的Twitter發言進行篩查。”
上周六，中國軍方證實他們在菲律賓蘇比克灣西北約50英裏的水域繳獲一艘無人潛航器之後，特朗普到Twitter上表了態。此前五角大樓已經公布此事，中國國防部表示將以“適當的方式”返還這個用於監測海底洋流和狀況的裝置。
特朗普認為這是不夠的。他說，中國此舉是“前所未有的”，後來又說，“我們應該告訴中國，他們偷走的潛航器我們不要了。”
特朗普沒有說他擔任總統之後將如何處理類似的糾紛。但是他迄今為止的其他做法表明，他對中國采取的行動將比最近幾屆白宮政府更加直接，更加不可預測。
本月，特朗普與台灣總統蔡英文通了電話，打破了近40年來美國總統和候任總統避免與台灣領導人直接通話的慣例。中國聲稱對台灣擁有主權。
在接受福克斯新聞(Fox News)采訪時，特朗普暗示他可能會偏離“一個中國”的原則——該原則阻止華盛頓與台灣發展外交關係——以此作為籌碼，尋求北京在貿易問題上讓步。他還對中國在貿易上的做法，在南海建立軍事前哨，以及不願意孤立朝鮮進行了批評。
“中國不習慣美國像自己一樣宣揚和推動本國利益。”美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)亞洲研究主任丹·布魯門薩爾(Dan Blumenthal)讚揚了特朗普這種更加率直的做法，“如果他們為此做好準備，我們就可以避免對抗和衝突。”
到目前為止，習近平沒有公開對特朗普的警告作出反應。兩個人在特朗普勝選後進行了短暫但親切的電話交談。中國領導人很少公開參與糾紛，往往會留給下級官員處理。但是，如果特朗普不斷發出警告，特別是在他成為總統之後，中國國內就可能會形成一種壓力，要求習近平對特朗普做出更強硬的回應。
中國扣留潛航器是不是對特朗普發出的一個信號，甚至是不是習近平授權開展了這個行動，專家們對此看法不一。但是中國決策者可能考慮到特朗普團隊會把這看成是“一個測試和警告，”上海政法大學的海洋軍事研究員倪樂雄說。
“中國不可能不對他的挑釁作出反應，”倪樂雄在電話說。“特朗普似乎想製定一個讓對方不斷猜測的外交政策。但這種方式很容易惹麻煩。”
周一，共產黨著名報紙上的一篇社論稱，習近平的政府需要做好準備，應對更不穩定的關係。
“特朗普東一榔頭西一棒，其真實心理很難說清，”《人民日報》海外版的這篇社論引用了一句中國俗語，意思是說話或做事隨心所欲、毫無根據。文章還說，中國“隻要站穩腳跟，把握好形勢，沉著應付即可”。
但是，甚至連中國要求冷靜的呼籲也含有尖刻言辭和警告，可能惹怒特朗普政府。
中國國防部在表示同意歸還潛航器時，也提到中國船隻捕獲它體現出“專業和負責任的態度”，雖然它當時似乎處在中國主張的、本來就極為廣闊的南海主權的範圍之外。
中國的強硬派已經敦促對特朗普做出更強硬的回應。周六，以反美為主調的報紙《環球時報》在北京舉辦了年會。與會者表示，如果特朗普與台灣走得更近，中國應該予以強硬報複，還讚揚了捕獲潛航器的行動。
“中國不怕和美國對抗，”前中國空軍大校、直言不諱的鷹派人物戴旭在會上說。“如果沒有中國合作，特朗普將一事無成。我大膽斷言，如果他選擇和中國對抗，他的任期最多不超過四年。”
另一位發言者、中國人民大學國際關係學教授金燦榮對《環球時報》說，“中國是龍，美國是鷹，英國是獅子。龍一旦覺醒，其他的都是點心。”
此類強硬言論不能決定中國的外交政策，但是，習近平等領導人對自己培養起來的民族主義憤慨很敏感。習近平把自己對國家振興強大的理想總結為“中國夢”，那是他自上任起就在宣傳的一個主題。
如果特朗普繼續公開責難中國，習近平的壓力很可能會增大，尤其是在台灣和南海等領土問題上，因為公眾傾向於在這些問題上給予對方強硬回應。
“中國通常會給新領導人一個適應局麵的過渡期，”白潔曦說。她專門研究過中國對大選和新領導人的反應。“不過，特朗普向中國做出挑戰和挑釁比其他候任總統都快，所以過渡期可能很快就會結束。”
美國總統們都知道，與中國的關係惡化起來能有多快。
1999年，北約的炸彈在前南斯拉夫首都貝爾格萊德擊中中國大使館，導致三人死亡。之後，比爾·克林頓總統(Bill Clinton)努力修複與中國關係。白宮堅稱那是誤炸，但中國政府不相信，之後數日出現了憤怒的抗議。
2001年，一架美國海軍偵察機與一架中國空軍飛機碰撞後在海南省（一個伸入南海的中國島嶼省份）緊急迫降，中方飛行員跳傘後死亡。11天後，中國釋放了24名美方機組人員，在之後的幾個月裏將飛機拆解後歸還。
在特朗普任上，此類事件的情形可能會截然不同。
“如果特朗普認為自己遭到了挑戰，他很可能會本能地不想顯得軟弱，”華盛頓國際戰略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)中國力量項目(China Power Project)主任葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)說。“在危機中，如果他不等獲得所有的情報和必要的分析，就決定在Twitter上發言或公開講話，情況會變得非常混亂。”
習近平在國內有自己的政治日程需要擔心。2012年，他被任命為中共總書記，而明年的黨代會幾乎肯定會同意他連任下一個五年任期。不過，習近平必須安排一批新的高級官員在自己手下工作，在精英人事變動時期，中共的領導層更強調穩定性。
“中共領導層必須在保持更穩定、更可預見的外部環境與避免顯得軟弱這兩個目標之間權衡，”葛來儀說。“我傾向於認為，如果中國領導層不得不做出選擇，那麽後者會戰勝前者。我故意用的雙關語（講話者故意用了trump這個詞本身的意思‘戰勝，打敗’――譯注）。”
儲百亮(Chris Buckley)是《紐約時報》駐京記者。
翻譯：紐約時報中文網
Trump’s and Xi’s Differences Magnify Uncertainties Between U.S. and ChinaDEC. 19, 2016
BEIJING — Both came to power vowing to restore their nations to greatness. But America’s loud, ad-libbing president-elect, Donald J. Trump, and China’s guarded, calculating president, Xi Jinping, are glaring contrasts as politicians, and their pairing has injected new unpredictability into relations between their governments.
“I could not think of two more different protagonists in the great drama of U.S.-China relations,” Evan S. Medeiros, formerly the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said by email. “Personalities matter a lot in international relations, especially between great powers.”
A quarrel after China seized an underwater drone from the United States Navy has given a taste of how Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Xi’s different styles could play out if bigger tensions were to break out over the South China Sea, trade imbalances, North Korea’s nuclear weapons or other issues that Mr. Trump has raised.
Mr. Trump has recently blared warnings at China, seemingly guided by visceral reflexes and a vague but bold set of demands. By contrast, Mr. Xi, the son of a Communist veteran, is disciplined and steely. He rarely speaks off the cuff in public. Even his seemingly impromptu gestures are often carefully choreographed, and he usually adheres to policy points when meeting foreign leaders. Mr. Xi is certainly capable of bold action, as he has shown in the South China Sea, but he tends to shroud his thinking in a cloud of slogans. That leaves outsiders guessing about when and how he will act on his demands.
“The situation could become quite combustible,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies Chinese foreign policy.
“Xi Jinping is more measured in his public statements than Donald Trump, but the Chinese government will likely hit back quite forcefully against any radical efforts to challenge the status quo,” Ms. Weiss said. “The best thing the president-elect’s advisers can do for our national security is to screen Trump’s tweets.”
Mr. Trump took to Twitter on Saturday after the Chinese military confirmed that it had seized a submersible drone in waters about 50 miles northwest of Subic Bay in the Philippines. The Pentagon had revealed the seizure, and China’s Ministry of National Defense said it would return the device, which can be used to monitor undersea currents and conditions, in an “appropriate manner.”
Mr. Trump suggested that wasn’t good enough. He said China’s seizure was an unprecedented act, and later added, “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.”
Mr. Trump did not say how he would handle similar disputes after he is sworn. But his other comments so far suggest that he will take a blunter, less predictable course on China than recent White House administrations.
This month, Mr. Trump spoke on the phone with Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, breaking nearly 40 years of American presidents and presidents-elect avoiding direct conversation with the leader of the island, over which China claims sovereignty.
In an interview with Fox News, Mr. Trump then suggested he could depart from the One China principle, which blocks Washington from diplomatic ties with Taiwan, using that as a pressure point to seek trade concessions from Beijing. He also criticized China on trade, the buildup of military outposts in the South China Sea and its reluctance to isolate North Korea.
“China is not used to the U.S. asserting and pushing its interests like the Chinese do,” said Dan Blumenthal, the director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, who praised Mr. Trump’s blunter approach. “If it is prepared for that, we will be able to avoid confrontation and conflict.”
So far, Mr. Xi has not reacted publicly to Mr. Trump’s warnings. The two men had a brief but cordial call after Mr. Trump won the election. Chinese leaders rarely wade openly into disputes, leaving that to junior officials. But pressure for a tougher reaction to Mr. Trump could build in China if he keeps lobbing out warnings, especially after he becomes president.
Experts disagreed over whether China’s seizure of the submersible drone was intended as a signal to Mr. Trump, or even authorized by Mr. Xi. But Chinese decision makers probably took into account that Mr. Trump’s team would read it as “a test and a warning,” said Ni Lexiong, a naval affairs researcher at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
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個性迥異的習近平和特朗普，讓中美關係更難預測
• “為了我們的國家安全，特朗普的顧問們最明智的做法應該是對特朗普的Twitter發言進行篩查。” -michigan007- ♂ 
(0 bytes) (9 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 06:49:09
• 建議他好好睡覺，不要在在早上３點發推。 -michigan007- ♂ (1415 bytes) (23 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 07:33:56
• 兩個傻子比看誰更傻一些 -Yale555- ♂ (0 bytes) (4 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 06:56:12
• 最傻是蔡英文。 -薛成- ♂ 
(0 bytes) (4 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 06:59:42
• 還有一個傻得不能再傻，蠢得不能再蠢。 -ZuoLuo- ♂ (0 bytes) (14 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 07:16:57
• 兩人都是雙子座,等於4個總統,哈哈 -慕容西瓜- ♀ (0 bytes) (3 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 07:25:09
• 原來都精分呀。 哈哈 -落英如雪- ♀ (0 bytes) (2 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 07:27:36
• 把習和川在一起比的人，智商堪憂啊！ -sun2015sun- ♂ (0 bytes) (3 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 08:39:31
• 就是嗎，川普能和習比嗎？習見過的，川從來就沒聽到過。不是一個等級 -好酒- ♂ (0 bytes) (1 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 08:44:50
• 就是，習當過知青，川普沒當過。川普打了選舉大硬仗，習根本不需要。兩人沒有可比性 -有一天我會- ♀ (0 bytes) (0 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 09:27:09
• 其實比比也無礙。美中兩巨頭，在同一曆史時期，遇事將如何處理，如何互動，值得關注。 -清漪園- ♀ (0 bytes) (2 reads) 12/20/2016 postreply 08:59:28
http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-847277-1022096.html
