ZT: 用Gibson定律（Gibson's Paradox）預測金價

"...Gibson's Paradox explains much of the price movement in the gold market (Summers & Barsky, 1988). Research indicates that the gold price and real interest rates are highly negatively correlated - when rates go down, gold goes up. It has been rigorously back-tested and stands the test of time via not only theoretical evidence, but empirical research. In fact, regression analysis reveals a very high f-statistic which adds statistical support to the notion - when real interest rates are below 2%, a bull market in gold is virtually certain.
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Next, Gibson’s Paradox offers a gold price forecast for the next 12 months (White, 2011). The rule states that for every percentage point the real interest rate (-3%) is below 2%, gold will increase in value by 8%. As calculated in the last paragraph, the real interest rate is assumed to be -3%. Since -3% is 5% below the 2% threshold, 5 percentage points times 8% provides the gold forecast for the next 12 months: 5 x 8% = 40% . The current gold price is near $1,700 - leading to a gold price forecast of: $1,700 x 1.40 = $2,380. Anecdotally, $2,380 coincides with the 1980 inflation adjusted, peak gold price. ......
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Next a very cursory back-test of Gibson’s Paradox is illustrated in Figure 1.1. Assuming that rates entered negative territory in 2001 and have remained there ever since, resulting with a constant real interest rate of -0.5%, gold should have performed as follows:

Figure 1.1. Gibson’s Gold Law - Back-test:

2001: $300;
2002: $360;
2003: $432;
2004: $518;
2005: $622;
2006: $747;
2007: $895;
2008: $1074;
2009: $1289;
2010: $1547;
2011: $1857.

Do the numbers above look familiar? Clearly the back-test shows a high correlation to the true bull market price advance - Gibson’s Paradox holds. Assuming the same negative real interest rate of -0.5% (2.5% below the threshold resulting with 2.5 x .08 = 20% growth per annum) Gibson's Paradox provides a gold forecast in Figure 1.2 (White, 2011):

Figure 1.2. Gibson’s Gold Law - Forecast:

2012: $1,700 x 1.2 = $2229;
2013: $2229 x 1.2 = $2675;
2014: $2675 x 1.2 = $3210;
2015: $3210 x 1.2 = $3851;
2016: $3851 x 1.2 = $4622;
2017: $4622 x 1.2 = $5,547.

Therefore, if real interest rates remain even fractionally negative, given the precepts of Gibson’s Paradox, the price of gold should surpass $5,500 by 2017.
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Full article here: http://radio.goldseek.com/gibsonsgoldlaw.php