HOW TO PLAY THE “FISCAL CLIFF”?

來源: 美西遊子 2012-11-15 09:39:24 [] [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (4731 bytes)
本文內容已被 [ 美西遊子 ] 在 2012-11-15 09:55:07 編輯過。如有問題,請報告版主或論壇管理刪除.

 

 

Two beneficiaries from "fiscal cliff" may be  ETFs and VXX.

-       ETFs are more tax efficient than mutual funds:  ETFs almost never distribute capital gains, and with anxiety about capital gains tax increases growing, that is a big plus.   traders are concerned about protecting the gains they have made this year and are trying to dodge headline risks associated with the fiscal cliff.  This is what’s happening to AAPL - Sell the winners!

-      VXX:  mkt went down since election, but VXX didn’t seem spiking.  Why?  2 reasons: 

#1:  the holidays are coming up.  There are more days off in the next month, and since the VIX calculates the odds of the markets moving when they are open, the VIX is rightly assuming less volatility.

#2:  VXX indicates only the options volatility.  traders are selling puts. They are selling volatility. A lot of money hedged, particularly when the S&P 500 index [.SPX  1349.98    -5.51  (-0.41%)   ] was above 1,400. Now, as the market has been dropping, they are unwinding those hedges. They are selling those puts they had bought because they are in the money.

So, what’s better hedge or protection of your portfolios in this environment?  None. 

You might trade SDS.  But you got to be very cautious and quick.

 

所有跟帖: 

Long muni bond Short junk bond -越王劍- 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (204 bytes) () 11/15/2012 postreply 10:01:51

Might be too late. -一天釣魚,兩天上網- 給 一天釣魚,兩天上網 發送悄悄話 (46 bytes) () 11/15/2012 postreply 10:09:31

心髒好的做空,心髒不好回家睡覺。 -soundofsilence- 給 soundofsilence 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/15/2012 postreply 12:32:23

VXX絕對是坑爹!;p -趙飛燕- 給 趙飛燕 發送悄悄話 趙飛燕 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/15/2012 postreply 14:55:49

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