Yes, this is the most accurate one.

It run by a statistic guru Nate Silver.  He ran this site independtly back in 2008.  Since his forecast for 2008 election was so accurate (only missed one state) , this site is very reputable.  NY Time bought this site after 2008 election, and Nate Silver became one of Time's 100 most influential people in 2008.

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