On the average of all major after-debate polls, Obama won the second debate by about 6%, slightly out of the margin of error. But from most of these polls, the voters are still tilting to Romney at accelerated rate. Noticeably Gallup poll gives Romney 7 points lead (52% to 45%) to Obama as of today.
Why?
In my analysis, what Obama won was on the style and tactics but not substance. He failed to stop Romney’s core message: the president failed his promise made 4 years ago and he would fail you again in the next four years if he was elected.
In the second debate, Romney appeared a bit too strong in front of the president, who is command-in-chief nevertheless, and to a female moderate – he should save her face a bit no matter how bias she was. On the Benghazi issue, he lost opportunity to punch Obama for the security failure. Romney also lost a few points by going too small such as keeping asking questions on Obama’s pension. At the end, Obama skillfully brought up 47% issue without letting Romney have change to respond. Overall, Obama won on the style and tactics.
For the most posters here including me, we are probably fortunate to be better than 4 years ago. But as a nation, most statistics are pointing to a stagnant 4 years especially for those below middle income people. Obama’s rhetoric and intention is use poor against rich. Ironically, the poor get poorer and the rich are doing fine in the last 4 years. For example, stock price has covered most from the historical high, which has little effect to the poor but keeps the net wealth of the rich intact. The real problem is why the economy is still stupid even after borrowing 6T dollars and what is going to happen if another $6T for another same 4 years?
Tomorrow’s debate will be crucial to both candidates. The main topic will be national security and foreign policies, which is a slightly better setting for the sitting president who luckily have had no international crisis in the past 4 years. Whoever wins the debate in substance will probably win the election. Romney may avert it to domestic issues as much as possible and Obama may paint Romney a war monger who will bring the country to the Bush years. The debate could be as heated as the second one.
Let’s see.
