例解交易是綜合藝術

來源: FreeTrader 於 2012-09-16 08:38:58 [檔案] [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀：次 (3591 bytes)

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例解交易是綜合藝術

Trading is a comprehensive package.

即使有了自己有效的交易係統，應用時，還需Enrich經驗、交易信號可靠度等無法精確量化的內容。在這篇文章中曾較係統地分析過：

交易知識和經驗的應用
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/47609/201008/5094.html

For example, I didn't do any trade from the end of Jan 2012 to the end of Jul 2012. Part of the reason is that I was in China and wasn't able to follow the market closely. But this is not the main reason, which is that I was not confident enough to make trades based on my reading at the market.

From early Feb to late April, my reading at the market was wrong. But I had no cost because I didn't trade since I knew that it was not confident enough. From the end of April and early May, I was confident enough to short the market but I didn't find good targets, so didn't do anything either although the market reading was perfect.

在2012年7月，美國市場上的中國概念股遭到大資金係統性的強力打壓。其中以EDU為甚，股價兩天之內跌了60%.解讀這種情況，有以下幾個方麵：
1，中國概念股現在是市場熱點，盤麵和盤外也配合相當專業；
2，大資金的空倉不是現在才入的，而是早已經就入了；
3，現在強力打壓，有兩種可能：一是要回補空倉，二是吸籌；具體如何，要根據個股的形態判斷，比如EDU應該是回補空倉；
4，這不過是大主力運作和操盤的手段，如何利用這種情況尋找操作機會？

隻有兩種操作機會，做多和做空。既然主力布局做空的時候沒有能跟上，那麽，現在跟進做空風險已然太大，特別是類似EDU已經不具有做空條件，該股的圖形表明後市最大的可能是在低位盤整，且低位長時間盤整後，也方向不明，要到時再具體情況具體分析。從圖形上看，可肯定選擇做多的有QIHU和BIDU：

1，大框架是箱體震蕩；
2，隨著中國概念這個Sector被打壓，兩股都Well controlledly跌，也都跌到了年低價格附近；
是很好的做多目標。

2012年7月17日，當EDU作為市場熱點大跌時，BIDU當日有反轉長下影，而且位置在該股年低股價$103-110的下半段。該年低股價是在2011年9月底和10月初的4根陽線創下的，隨後有了強烈的反轉，這說明該價格是強支撐。然而BIDU是處於出貨狀態的股，無論圖形有多好，都最好不要介入。（事後諸葛：BIDU在當時的股價穩定，說明了對中國概念的打壓以EDU大跌為基調，已經在最困難的時候暫時停歇）。

QIHU上市時間還不長，還從沒有過大行情，是出於吸籌狀態的股。在中國概念如此慘烈的氛圍下，該股目前沒有跌到$14的最強支撐點，而是跌倒了第二主要支撐點$15。$15是2011年10月初創下的，隨後也有了較強烈的反轉，但當時沒有成交量支持。雖可以在這個位置入倉試探，但市場氛圍不好，進入後有可能要等，所以，先放入Watch List，如果能跌到$14-14.50，並且有日內反轉的形態，則要果斷介入。

On August 2nd, I bought QIHU at around 45th minute when it broke down $14 and quickly came back $14.50（這是典型的日內反轉形態，打到了$14.00一下，Trigger了所有可能的止損盤，然後迅速脫離低價Range，通吃所有外掛的拋盤，至少短時間內是不會再見到$14.00了，這是最安全的買點和買入價！）, at which price I entered. A few days later, QIHU quickly went up to $17, I sold half at $17 because it touched 50SMA after a local extremely strong consecutive rally which implies that a consolidation or pullback is pending. Holding the other half position could give a chance to "let profit run" because the position is extremely secure since now it could tolerate the price's going down to as low as $12.50 in the worst case.

隨後也沒料到股價上漲這麽快，但這隻是賺多賺少的問題了。

On August 22nd, I sold off QIHU $24 because:
1, it's approaching the ceiling of the consolidation range;
2, it went up too much recently and typically on the day.

If we can make three such trades per year, it's more than good enough.