QE3箭在玄上，市場對QE1和QE2的反應告訴了我們什麽？

QE3箭在弦上，市場對QE1和QE2的反應告訴了我們什麽？

 

QE1始於11/08，結束於3/2010， QE2 始於8/2010，結束於6/2011。QE1股票漲了36%，結束後跌了10%，QE2股票漲了19%，結束後繼續漲了11% 。同期，原材料，能源和金屬股票漲跌幅大大的超過大市。見下。

問題是股市已達到5/08 以來最高。QE3 還能把股市推到哪裏？大家有何高見？

我的股票投資本來是極端被動的，95% invested，懶人也想動一動了。LOL

 QE1 started in November 2008 and concluded in March, 2010. QE2 started in November 2010 (Bernanke announced it at the end of August at Jackson Hole) and concluded in June, 2011.

Here, from the Ned Davis report, is the percentage change in the S&P 500 since QE1 started:

During QE1 up 36.8%

Between QE 1 & 2 down - 10.5%

During QE2 up 19.1%

Since QE2 up 11.4%

QE 1 and QE2 appear to have moved the stock market; when it was withdrawn, the market was either down (between QE1 and QE2) or up much less (since QE2).

This outperformance is even more stark when you examine commodity stocks:

Materials

During QE1 up 82.7%

Between QE 1 & 2 down -8.7%

During QE2 up 21.4%

Since QE2 down - 9.3%

Energy stocks

During QE1 up 48.2%

Between QE 1 & 2 down -14.1%

QE2 up 36.5%

Since QE2 up 14.7%

Big moves up when QE is on, big decline when withdrawn. The exception is energy stocks, which have held up well since QE2 concluded.

Commodities like gold, silver, copper and oil also rose during QE.

Just look at what copper did:

During QE1 up 116.3%

Between QE 1 & 2 down - 6.9%

QE2 up 21.8%

Since QE2 down - 16%