美國絕不會還中國的錢

歐洲太平洋資本有限公司總裁——彼得?希夫，想必每一位在去年目睹金融危機的人都對他非常熟悉。他被認為是口頭預測能力最準的經濟學家之一，在 2006年8月CNBC的一次電視辯論中，他以令人吃驚的準確性預言了一年之後到來的房市崩盤和經濟危機，。他也是奧地利經濟學派的追隨者，是兩本書的作 者：《美元大崩潰》，以及最新的《熊市下的投資之道》。他不隻是金融與經濟領域的評論家，而且還教授各種嚴謹的經濟學理論。他的文章經常在《紐約時報》、 《華盛頓郵報》這樣的媒體上發表。可以說是美國經濟界舉足輕重的人！在美國的許多BBS上，許多美國人表示非常不希望中國人看到彼得希夫的此篇演講。

以下為彼得?希夫的演講視頻內容（土豆有視頻）：

你知道，昨天中國領導人公開表示對借給我們的錢“有些”擔憂【台下大笑】，說“有可能”我們還不了。我想他們不隻是“有些”擔憂，這隻是公開說法，想象一下他們私下會怎麽看？他們一定知道我們不會還這筆錢，不可能給中國人還這筆錢，這是絕對不可能的。

Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won’t pay them back. I’m sure they’re a lot more than just a little concerned because that’s what they said publicly. Imagine what they’re saying privately.
Because they know we’re not going to pay them back. Of course we’re not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It’s impossible. We can’t. We can’t possibly.

——想象一下，某天總統奧巴馬，對著數萬億美國民眾，發表一次公開的電視演說。他這樣說道：
“親愛的美國同胞們，今天非常不幸地，我給你們帶來了一個壞消息。政府決定對美國普通民眾大幅加稅；那些仍然沒有失業的人，將為此支付更高的個人所得稅； 政府將全麵削減社會福利，仍然沒有實施的各種福利措施將徹底取消；我原先製定的所有計劃，包括全民教育、醫療保障、自主能源，所有這些計劃將被無限期擱 置。因為中國人要我們還錢！【台下長時間狂笑】我們借的實在是太多了，全世界婦孺皆知【台下笑】。欠債還錢，天經地義。所以我們必須勒緊褲腰帶給中國人還 錢！【台下大笑】”

Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.
He’ll give a national televised address and say “My fellow Americans I’ve got a little news for you today. We’re going to have to have a massive across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes.
“And as a matter of fact we’re going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check we’re going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence we got to put all those plans on hold because the Chinese need their money.
“We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we’re good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we’re going to pay it back. And that’s going to require a big sacrifice on our part.”

——大家認為這樣的事可能發生嗎？別開玩笑了。
我們更應該對中國人說：“你們是食利者！放高利貸者！我們需要修改遊戲規則【笑】，我們要打破債務枷鎖！你們明知我們還不了，還借給我們那麽多錢！【台下大笑】這不是我們的錯！”

Does anyone think that we’re going to do that? What are they kidding me?
Do you know what we’re going to tell the Chinese? We’re going to say “You guys are predators predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can’t pay it back. It’s not our fault.”

——中國人自己很清楚，他們無法參與我們的政治選舉，我們為什麽還要在意中國人怎麽想？華盛頓難道會得罪選民，去取悅非選民？

The Chinese know this. The Chinese they can’t even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We’re going to tax voters to pay non-voters?

——中國人很清楚，我們不可能還他們錢，這和伯尼?麥道夫的騙局是同一個道理。別人借我們錢，我們是怎麽還的？——再去借新債。

So the Chinese know they’re in this box. The US government we don’t pay our bills. We’re like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.

——麥道夫早期的客戶確實能把錢要回來，為什麽？因為麥道夫仍然在吸收新錢，騙那些還不知道這是龐氏騙局的人入會。財政部也在做同樣的事情，國債到期了怎 麽辦？——再把它賣給其他人。需要支付利息怎麽辦？——照借不誤。如果有一天誰也不願再買我們的國債了，那就隻能違約，和麥道夫一樣。違約隻有兩條途徑， 要麽直接宣布不還，要麽印錢。這就是這些債務唯一可能的結局，反正它們不可能被償還。中國人當然知道這一切，我們很快就會明白。

If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn’t know it was a Ponzi scheme.
Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt we go borrow that too. Well it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money then we’re going to have to default just like Bernie did.
And there’s only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don’t pay or we print money. That’s it. There’s only two ways to repudiate your debt. There’s no way we’re going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that and we’re going to figure that out.

——在我看來，與其把麥道夫投進監獄，我們不如任命他為財政部部長【台下聽眾狂笑】，因為他的經驗是我們最最需要的——那就是玩“龐氏騙局”的經驗。【台下大笑】

And of course I said instead of putting Bernie Madoff in jail we should just make him Secretary of the Treasury. Because he’s got a lot of experience exactly the kind that we need running a Ponzi scheme.

所有跟帖： 

• 這不會發生。美國可以印那個破紙給中國。 -trendspike- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/25/2012 postreply 04:39:24

• No, do not need to print, but just announce a number. -naive2- ♀ (0 bytes) () 06/25/2012 postreply 06:25:27