My understanding,,,回複:通貨緊縮 。。。 ?

來源: hercules007 2012-05-30 18:44:41 [] [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (1328 bytes)
回答: 通貨緊縮 。。。 ?yankeyyboy282012-05-30 15:57:39

"國債/美元牛,金子/石油/股市/房市熊,,,"

What's deflating is the assets that have built in leverage. When credit conditions become tight, or confidence erodes, the market players will sell off assets they bought with leverage, and go into cash or cash equivalent (treasury bonds).

I would caution that gold should not be lumped together with oil/houses etc.  Yes the gold market does involve leverage, but not all of them. The real physical gold buyers like central banks, there is no pressure on these players to de-lever, thus gold finds support at certain price levels. This explains why gold and the USD index is going up together today.

So to sum it up: leveraged assets or market playthings deflate when credit conditions tighten or confidence weaken.

The money printing/QE is the FED's response to this deflation when things become bad enough. The FED's money printing may or may not cause consumer price inflation in any short period of time, but it always erodes confidence in the currency itself. The breaking point in confidence is when hyper-inflation starts to manifest itself.  We are not there yet, but we are surely moving in that direction.

Try google John Exeter's liquidity pyramid, and read up on it. it might help you with a better view/understanding.

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