今天接觸到的4本書，說的都是一個事兒。

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今天接觸到的4本書，說的都是一個事兒。也許是我過分敏感。

1. The Forth Turning-1997:

http://www.angelfire.com/or/truthfinder/fourthturning.html

The Fourth Turning is a book about human social cycles in America written by two respected generational historians, They make a very convincing case for a disaster and era of economic depression and crisis, possibly total war, in the coming years. Like the Kondratieff wave, based on price behaviour over time, they are essentially interpreting the "Long Cycle" through characteristics of generational aspects.

Although in the book they expect this era of crisis-- the fourth turning-- 2005 to 2025, It seems clear with present trends it is just around the corner. We are (and will be) witnessing a massive Global Realignment that could be the precursor for what they (and I) envision: World War Three.

2.《文明的衝突與世界秩序的重建》1996

「假設在2010年，南中國海石油資源的開發進展迅速，大部分區域在中國保護之下，而越南控製的一些區域則由美國公司開發。中國因擁有新的兵力投放能力而信心大增，宣布它將建立對整個南中國海的控製。越南開始抵抗，中越之間隨之發生海戰。」-- 1996年

如果南海問題的衝突演變為以中美兩大國為核心的東西方文明之間的戰爭，必定是雙輸的結果，很有可能意味著美國霸權的終結，而得利者一定是那些沒有卷入或卷入戰爭程度較低的第三方。

3. Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny

History tells us that there are dangers. There will be shocks and surprises, and economic difficulties. And the greatest danger of all is that America will try to do too much -- overextend itself to the point where freedom and democracy themselves might appear to be in danger.

4. A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing

If you are ever in a country that descends into war, I suggest you leave until it is over. Truth is always the first casualty of war, so you need to get your distance. Your mother and I explored moving to Shanghai or Spain, and spending time in Punta del Este, Uruguay, or Cochabamba, Bolivia.

a few centuries now, our family have served in the military, but you should not. ... My wish, as your father, is that you become a world citizen by your own will and decision.