以$154 price 為標準
Circle just announced a 10 million share secondary offering, with 2 million from the company and 8 million from existing shareholders. Here's how pricing could be approached:
| Strategy | Offer Price Range | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Aggressive (Premium) | $145–$150 | Signals confidence, minimizes dilution, but risks weak demand |
| Moderate (Discounted) | $135–$140 | Offers ~10–12% discount to market, typical for secondary offerings |
| Conservative (Deep Discount) | $120–$130 | Ensures full subscription, but may signal weakness or insider urgency |
Recommendation
A moderate discount—around $135–$140—would likely be optimal:
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It respects current valuation
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Attracts institutional buyers
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Avoids spooking the market with excessive insider selling
Break down the impact of Circle’s secondary offering on market cap and EPS dilution, using the latest data:
Market Cap Impact
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Current Market Cap: ~$36.7 billion
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Shares Outstanding (Pre-Offering): ~227.6 million
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New Shares Issued by Circle: 2 million (primary shares)
Assuming the offering price is $140, Circle would raise:
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$140 × 2M = $280 million in gross proceeds
This adds cash to the balance sheet but doesn’t directly change market cap unless the market revalues the company based on the new capital. If the market views the offering positively (e.g., funding growth), the market cap could rise. If it sees dilution or insider selling as a red flag, it could fall.
EPS Dilution Analysis
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Current EPS (TTM): $0.30
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Current Net Income (TTM): ~$68.3 million (EPS × Shares Outstanding)
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Post-Offering Shares Outstanding: 229.6 million
Assuming net income stays constant:
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New EPS = $68.3M ÷ 229.6M ≈ $0.297
That’s a ~1% dilution in EPS—very modest.
Key Takeaways
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Market Cap: Could increase if capital is deployed effectively
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EPS Dilution: Minimal (~1%), unlikely to spook investors
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Valuation: Forward P/E remains high (~128), so growth expectations are baked in
Would you like to model different offering prices or explore how this affects valuation multiples like EV/EBITDA or price-to-sales?
