利好CVVY.TO（PTOAF）：
隨著加拿大液化天然氣（LNG）產量的增加，加拿大西部天然氣庫存量在4-5個月內可能低於五年平均水平。AECO價格應在4-5個月內超過3美元。遠期價格已經反映了這一點。但加拿大西部天然氣庫存的真正緊張局麵將在明年春季到來，屆時加拿大液化天然氣（LNG）將在明年初達到滿負荷狀態。AECO價格應會大幅上漲，並在2026-2030年保持高位。
Canada Could Begin First Pacific LNG Production This Weekend
Canada could produce its first-ever liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export from the Pacific coast as early as this weekend, according to industry sources familiar with project timelines cited by Reuters.
LNG Canada, a massive $40-billion project in Kitimat, British Columbia, is completing cooldown operations on Train 1, which are scheduled from June 16 to 19.
If production begins as expected, it would mark a milestone for Canada’s natural gas industry: the country’s first operational LNG export terminal and the only one on North America’s Pacific coast. Initial output is expected to begin at half-capacity, with the first cargo slated for mid-July aboard the Gaslog Glasgow.
The project’s advantage lies in its economics and geography. Shell CEO Wael Sawan recently cited Canada's AECO gas benchmark, currently around $0.71 per MMBtu, versus $3.75 at Henry Hub, as a cost advantage. Proximity to Asian markets adds to its appeal, with key destinations reachable in under two weeks.
Backed by Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi, and Kogas, LNG Canada will eventually ramp up to 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). That capacity is expected to redirect a portion of Canadian gas exports—currently flowing almost entirely to the U.S.—toward global markets.
This development comes amid stalled U.S. LNG permitting and accelerating investment in Mexico, positioning Canada as a new Pacific LNG player.
While not yet confirmed, a weekend startup would mark the start of Canada’s long-delayed entry into global LNG—a move that could shift North American export patterns and bolster supply diversity for Asia.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
