Kelly's Criterion is used to determine the optimal fraction of your capital to bet in order to maximize long-term growth. The formula is:
x=p/a−q/b
Where:
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x is the fraction of your capital to bet (as a percentage),
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p is the probability of winning (in your case, 60% or 0.6),
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q is the probability of losing (40% or 0.4),
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b is the payout rate (here, （480-415)/415=65/415 ≈ 0.157),
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a is the loss rate per bet (here, (415-395)/415=20/415=0.048).
Plugging in the numbers:
x=0.6/0.048−0.4/0.157
So, according to Kelly’s Criterion, the optimal bet size is approximately 995.2% of your bankroll.
也就是說你需要借更多的錢來投資，或者用杠杆。
