Ray Dalio: I’m worried about something worse than recession

KEY POINTS

• Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said on Sunday that he’s concerned that the global monetary system will break down.
• President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and growing U.S. debt are contributing to a new unilateral world order, Dalio said.
• Dalio said the fallout from turmoil in bonds could be a more severe shock to the monetary system than the 2008 financial crisis.

  Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said on Sunday that he is worried that the turmoil resulting from President Donald Trump’stariff and economic policies will threaten the global economy.

  “Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”

  The hedge fund billionaire said he’s more concerned about trade disruptions, mounting U.S. debt and emerging world powers bringing down the international economic and geopolitical structure that has been in place since the end of World War II.

  “We are going from multilateralism, which is largely an American world order type of thing, to a unilateral world order in which there’s great conflict,” he said.

• Dalio said five forces drive history: the economy, internal political conflict, the international order, technology and acts of nature such as floods and pandemics. Trump’s tariffs have understandable goals, Dalio said, but they are being implemented in a “very disruptive” way that creates global conflict.

  The president’s rapidly changing tariff policies have upended international trade. Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on his “reciprocal tariffs,” but he stood firm on 10% baseline duties and 145% reciprocal tariffs on China.

  Then, U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced an exemption from the reciprocal tariffs for Chinese-made consumer electronics like smartphones, computers and semiconductors late Friday, though the products remain subject to a 20% tariff imposed earlier in the year. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick backtracked on Sunday and said the exemption was not permanent.

  In a Wednesday post on X, Dalio called for the U.S. to negotiate a “win-win” trade agreement with China that would appreciate the yuan against the dollar. He also called for both countries to address their growing debts.

  Dalio on “Meet the Press” said on Sunday that Congress should reduce the federal deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, echoing comments he made at CNBC’s CONVERGE LIVE event in March.

  “If they don’t, we’re going to have a supply-demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems, and the results of that will be worse than a normal recession,” Dalio said.

  The very value of money is at stake, Dalio said. A breakdown in the bond market, combined with events like internal and international conflict, could be an even more severe shock to the monetary system than President Richard Nixon’s cancellation of the gold standard in 1971 and the global financial crisis in 2008.

  That change is avoidable, Dalio said, if lawmakers work together to trim the deficit and the U.S. discourages conflict and inefficient policy on the global stage.

所有跟帖： 

• Dalio is one of the best minds at Wall Street. -lionhill- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 13:27:04

• 我不懂經濟貿易什麽的。但他呼籲和中國坐下來談判挺好的。有問題要談。談了才能解決。不能硬剛。 -雨女- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 13:37:58

• 都知道該坐下來談，可為了麵子都不談 -nancyjin5391- ♂ (48 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 14:01:43

• 談好後，Trump可能又會反悔。 -BeLe- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 14:05:08

• 他給的這幾個建議都挺合理的 -dancingpig- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/13/2025 postreply 14:42:43