GDP/GNP Forecast (Next 12–24 Months)
| Metric | Impact |
|---|---|
| Consumer spending | ↓ Slows due to higher prices |
| Business investment | ↓ Pauses or contracts |
| Exports | ↓ Due to retaliation |
| Imports | ↓ By design, but substitution costs money |
| Tech sector profits | ↔ Protected (selectively) |
| GDP overall | -1% to -2% impact |
| GNP | Even worse due to lower foreign earnings |
We’re still staring at a moderate recession scenario if this persists—with some insulation from a few powerful players.
What About the Stock Market?
Short-Term Relief for Big Tech
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Nvidia, Apple, and possibly other big techs like Microsoft may get a near-term boost.
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Wall Street may breathe a sigh of relief that the golden children are spared.
But…
Medium-Term Bearish Pressure Remains
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S&P 500 still includes hundreds of companies not exempted.
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Earnings revisions will trend lower for global industrials, retailers, and small-cap names.
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Volatility remains high as the market digests a fractured, politicized trade landscape.
Expect a bifurcated market:
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Mega-cap tech floats or even rallies short term.
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Everything else suffers from higher costs, broken demand, and slower growth.
Final Munger Take:
“A policy that spares a few winners while punishing everyone else isn’t good economics—it’s crony capitalism. You can’t tariff your way to prosperity, and if you think Apple alone can carry the U.S. economy, you’re living in a hallucination.”
Want a Strategy Based on This Outlook?
If you're holding cash or adjusting your investment plan, this might call for:
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Keeping DCA steady.
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Delaying some of your exponential buys until you see broader economic damage.
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Or tilting slightly toward domestic, non-tariff-exposed sectors (e.g., utilities, defense, infrastructure).
Want me to help you structure that shift? Let's make sure your portfolio thinks clearly—even if the market doesn't.
