川普為什麽怕了?WSJ 專題文章 --- Navarra is done!

本帖於 2025-04-09 18:54:43 時間, 由普通用戶 三心三意 編輯

https://apple.news/Ay2dlR5QsT4OVu7hwFr99ZA

 

People close to the discussions said that Trump’s decision to give Bessent more authority within his team of trade advisers was key to the change, along with the talks on Sunday. Bessent flew down Sunday to Florida and afterward was authorized to make comments publicly about deals, which heartened many people close to Trump. When the two men returned to Washington together Sunday on Air Force One, Bessent encouraged Trump to focus on negotiations, according to a person familiar with the conversation.

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President Trump finally blinked.

It took a week for the plunge in the stock and bond markets—along with a sustained campaign by executives, lawmakers, lobbyists and foreign leaders—to prompt Trump to roll back for 90 days a major element of his sweeping tariff plan.

The president said that the reaction to the tariff program was getting a bit “yippy”—like a nervous athlete unable to perform—and he relied on his instincts to change course as he watched the bond market tank and listened to business leaders including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon express fears of a recession. The episode was classic Trump: He took a drastic action, kept a close eye on the reaction, kept advisers and allies guessing and then changed course.

In this case, the extraordinary reversal was announced via Trump’s social-media platform just hours after so-called reciprocal tariffs officially went into effect. He tapped out the post in the Oval Office as he sat with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Trump also significantly raised tariffs on China. 

Shortly after Trump published his post, as markets rose, Bessent stood outside the entrance to the West Wing and explained that that the strategy to pause some of the tariffs was discussed on Sunday when the two men met. “He and I had a long talk,” Bessent said. “This was his strategy all along.”

Bessent was flooded with worried calls from Wall Street over the weekend, and felt strongly he had to persuade Trump that a pause was needed. It wouldn’t be a capitulation, Bessent argued, because they were going to have so many deals.

He revealed little publicly about why the president and his team waited until Wednesday afternoon to enact it, with Trump saying that he decided on the move Wednesday morning. Bessent said more than 75 countries have reached out seeking a deal to ease tariffs, with Japan “at the front of the queue.” 

People close to the discussions said that Trump’s decision to give Bessent more authority within his team of trade advisers was key to the change, along with the talks on Sunday. Bessent flew down Sunday to Florida and afterward was authorized to make comments publicly about deals, which heartened many people close to Trump. When the two men returned to Washington together Sunday on Air Force One, Bessent encouraged Trump to focus on negotiations, according to a person familiar with the conversation.

One factor that made Trump more willing to relent on the tariffs, a person who talked to him said, was that so many countries are in negotiations with the administration. 

Trump was also swayed by the stock market and the parade of business leaders expressing concerns about the tariffs. Over the past few days executives and lobbyists had flooded White House chief of staff Susie Wiles’ phone, according to a person close to her. A White House aide noted that it is standard for the president’s chief of staff to field calls on his behalf. 

The message delivered to Trump and his top advisers by chief executives was they needed to find an off ramp.

Trump played his cards close to his vest. He told advisers that he was willing to take “pain,” a person who spoke to him on Monday said. He privately acknowledged that his trade policy could trigger a recession but said he wanted to be sure it doesn’t cause a depression, according to people familiar with the conversations. 

Banking executives, frustrated at their apparent lack of influence with administration officials, turned to Republican lawmakers in recent days to lobby Trump on the tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter. Their message was that Trump was going to tank the economy. 

Trump was also in listening mode. Over the past few days he has been asking friends and advisers about the markets and he indicated he was closely watching them. At the White House on Wednesday, he had lunch with financier and investor Charles Schwab and met with Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who had warned that Michigan was already feeling the impact of the tariffs throughout its automotive industry—events that came after his decision but signaled he was widely gathering input. 

O n Tuesday evening, Trump said that he absorbed the bad news about a plummeting bond market. “I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy,” Trump said Wednesday about the bond market. 

Trump, an avid consumer of cable news, said that he watched Dimon’s interview Wednesday morning with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.

During the interview, Dimon said a recession was a “likely outcome” of the new tariff program, but also defended the idea of some tariffs as a way to improve trade. He urged the president to give Bessent time to make deals. “I’m taking a calm view, but it could get worse,” Dimon said.

Dimon hasn’t had a substantive conversation with Trump for years, people familiar with the matter said. While his appearance on the Fox Business show had been in place for sometime, Dimon knew that Trump and his inner circle often watch Fox and that his message would likely get through to them, one of the people said. 

Trump told reporters Wednesday he had been thinking about pausing tariffs “over the last few days” adding “it probably came together early this morning, fairly early this morning.” He said he didn’t consult with lawyers for the wording of his announcement and instead relied on input from Bessent and Lutnick. “We wrote it up from our hearts,” Trump said. “We don’t want to hurt countries that don’t need to be hurt, and they all want to negotiate.”

During the day Wednesday, top administration officials were fanned out to meet with lawmakers, betraying little about the announcement to come.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was testifying about the tariffs before the House Ways and Means Committee when Trump announced the reversal. About 20 minutes after Trump made the announcement, Rep. Steven Horsford (D., Nev.) finally brought up the shift, asking if Greer was aware of the pause. 

“I am, yes,” said Greer. “I understand the decision was made a few minutes ago. It’s been under discussion.”

Horsford grew angry. “This is amateur hour,” he said. “It needs to stop. How are you in charge of negotiations if the president is tweeting about this from wherever the hell he is?”

Bessent pulled out of a lunch event Wednesday with the Republican Study Committee, the largest conservative caucus in Congress, shortly before the announcement was made. Members of the caucus learned on their way to the event that Bessent was called into a meeting with Trump, and his deputy would attend in his place. 

Those who have watched Trump for years weren’t surprised by the turn of events.

Trump used his social-media platform to make encouraging comments about the stock market Wednesday morning. “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well,” he posted at 9:33 a.m. Eastern time Wednesday “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT,” Trump posted at 9:37 a.m. Wednesday. An administration official said no decision had been made at that point.

“How illogical this strategy was became apparent, not just in the markets, but also with expectations of deeper cuts across the economy,” said Marc Short, who was chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence. 

“He’s a careful studier of the markets, and he talks to a lot of people outside the White House too,” Short said. 

Bessent and other White House aides cast Trump’s move as part of a negotiating strategy where Trump took a maximalist approach to force the world to the bargaining table. 

They noted that China was singled out for increased tariffs because Beijing retaliated against the U.S.

Outsiders who had been alarmed about the tariffs were quick to reinforce the White House’s new message.

“This was brilliantly executed by @realDonaldTrump,” said Bill Ackman, who had been critical of Trump in recent days. “Textbook, Art of the Deal.”

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多謝搬運. 今天親身經曆, 見征曆史 -mobius- 給 mobius 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 18:48:32

重點就在這段話裏了。 -小鬆鬆- 給 小鬆鬆 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 18:55:48

也就是說關稅不是政策,而是談判砝碼。這點明確了,市場的信心才能恢複。 -小鬆鬆- 給 小鬆鬆 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 18:55:22

對等關稅政策沒有變,隻是策略性的減緩:1)讓這些國家買買買;2)讓企業有時間調整;3)殺雞儆猴,分化瓦解敢於作對的國家; -parentb- 給 parentb 發送悄悄話 parentb 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:00:00

軟化很多了 -小鬆鬆- 給 小鬆鬆 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:04:49

Now can anyone understand who is THE boss in America? -invest_2024dec- 給 invest_2024dec 發送悄悄話 invest_2024dec 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:01:51

Navarra成了美國和全球股市大跌的”接盤俠“了,lol -Rose03- 給 Rose03 發送悄悄話 Rose03 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:08:04

Navarro is silent today, lol. Dude was talking non-stop -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:14:38

真是個爛人,還造假出個專家來引用,哈哈,哈佛多騙子,是不是去年校長也造假? -BrightLine- 給 BrightLine 發送悄悄話 BrightLine 的博客首頁 (167 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:17:15

遺憾的是我們的天朝小學生可能都不知道債市是最關鍵的,也不知道他是怎麽觀察這個世界的,也許CCTV和人民日報, -longtermInvestor- 給 longtermInvestor 發送悄悄話 longtermInvestor 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:20:33

據說債市是關稅引起的. 空期貨長現貨上扛杆突然碰上關稅引起的衰退預期, 暴了. 以為老鮑今天眨眼, 沒想到 -mobius- 給 mobius 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:32:44

President Trump finally blinked. -wwni60- 給 wwni60 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:30:10

核心圈又掛了一個,嗬嗬 -randd2000- 給 randd2000 發送悄悄話 randd2000 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 19:35:59

傳統媒體關於川普的“新聞”基本上都是fake news -槍迷球迷- 給 槍迷球迷 發送悄悄話 槍迷球迷 的博客首頁 (76 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 20:00:14

Thanks for posting. Enjoyable to read. -KC28- 給 KC28 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 04/09/2025 postreply 20:05:50

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