TA 還是有用的

This week, in addition to the fact that SPX/QQQ is gapping down huge on its weekly chart, almost "all" other TA indicators are showing oversold condition.

I think at least 50% of the rally so far is driven by the technical oversold conditions. Whether we can sustain this will be decided by the Tariff policy coming out after market close

Below is an example of MACD on SPX daily chart, SPX MACD has not been so oversold in history, except only one time in 2020 during COVID crash. Combined with weekly gap distance, this rally, at least on the short term basis, is a very high probability trade. 

所有跟帖： 

• 以下是糊塗扮演猛牛角色說的話，TA還是沒用的。 -hhtt- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:25:00

• 炒股靠猜 -麻你- ♂ (167 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:28:26

• 買股靠感覺 -bogbog- ♀ (167 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:30:34

• whatever it is, making money most important , hahaha -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:31:40

• 掙錢靠喊 -越王劍- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:34:09

• 覺得定投，加點偷雞摸狗可行。day trade 掙錢不容易。 -Tianyazi- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:40:01

• 最近買了本你推薦的書，每晚讀幾頁猛補知識，懂點FA and TA 了，都有用啊。 -吃貨99- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:30:43

• 請問哪本書呢？ -bogbog- ♀ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:31:15

• 對多波段應該有用。覺得這類分析是根據已經發生了的情況推測未來。它沒有考慮未來因素對股市走勢的影響。 -QinHwang- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:33:37

• 但如果是95%以上的曆史pattern，還是值的一搏的：） -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:46:47

• 這類分析的理論基礎應該是物理學的慣性。所有社會學現象也有慣性。要他改變方向並不容易。剛退休覺得難受，習慣了絕不想上班。 -QinHwang- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:53:18

• 比如說周線幾乎很少有gap, 這已經被無數次事實驗證了 -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:48:24

• 這估計也是股民心理活動的慣性導致。長的時候認為一隻會長，跌的時候又認為一直會跌。改變股民的心裏慣性也不容易。 -QinHwang- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 11:01:58

• 啊哈，這裏有個悖論，如果TA有用，為什麽會出現Oversold? -猛牛- ♂ (402 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:34:31

• 對被嚇破膽的小散確實沒用：） -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:41:04

• 其實機構嚇破膽的更多，這下跌應該是機構所為，小散掀不起大浪！ -猛牛- ♂ (228 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:49:51

• 我在說rally， 你在說下跌。Anyway, I'm going to end this discussion -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:54:41

• 哦。Rally 好，歡迎用TA看漲！ -猛牛- ♂ (48 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 11:17:46

• 猜概率上也許有那麽一點點用，本人不認為有什麽用。 -parentb- ♂ (0 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 10:49:46

• 同意 -arewethereyet- ♂ (81 bytes) () 04/02/2025 postreply 11:18:24