轉：Jevons’ Paradox（傑文斯悖論），其核心觀點是：當某種資源的使用變得更加高效時，人們往往不會減少對該資源的消耗，反而會因為成本降低而增加使用量。
主要內容：
1. 曆史背景：
• 1865年，英國經濟學家 威廉·傑文斯（William Jevons） 觀察到，隨著蒸汽機變得更加高效，人們原本以為煤炭的使用會減少，但實際上煤炭消耗量反而激增。
2. Jevons 悖論的機製：
• 更高效的煤炭使用使煤炭更便宜，從而促使更多行業采用煤炭，導致消費量上升，而不是下降。
• 這一現象也適用於能源、技術和其他資源。
3. 現實例子（汽車）：
• 由於汽車變得更加節能，燃油成本下降，使得駕駛變得更加便宜和普及。
• 結果，人們開車更多，行駛更遠，甚至購買第二輛車，從而提高了整體燃油消耗。
• 公路擴建進一步促進了車輛使用，最終增加了整體燃油消耗，而不是減少。
4. 工業應用（鋼鐵與石油）：
• 安德魯·卡內基（Andrew Carnegie）和約翰·D·洛克菲勒（John D. Rockefeller）利用更高效的鋼鐵和石油生產技術，並沒有減少需求，反而 推動了工業快速擴張。
5. AI 相關預測：
• DeepSeek 的 AI 模型，認為 更高效的計算並不會減少 AI 相關的支出，反而會促使更多公司擴大 AI 基礎設施的投資，類似於傑文斯悖論的邏輯——更高效帶來更大的總需求。
總結：
Jevons’ Paradox 說明，技術進步和更高的效率通常不會減少資源使用，反而可能促進更廣泛的應用，從而 增加總消耗。
Here is the original English text
Carnegie & Rockefeller Proved It
In 1865, British economist William Jevons noticed something surprising. As steam engines became more efficient and used less coal, people thought coal use would go down.
But the opposite happened—coal consumption skyrocketed!
Why? Because making coal-powered machines more efficient made coal cheaper and easier to use, so more industries started using it. Instead of saving coal, people used it even more.
This idea is called Jevons’ Paradox—when something becomes more efficient, demand for it often goes up, not down. The same pattern happens with energy, technology, and resources even today!
Here is a real-life example:
(Illustration: “Jevons’ Paradox – Fuel efficiency gains tend to increase, not decrease, fuel use.)
These new cars are so efficient everyone’s driving everywhere these days.�
When cars became more fuel-efficient, the cost per mile dropped, making driving cheaper and more accessible. As a result, people drove more, took longer trips, and commuted farther, often choosing cars over public transport.
Lower fuel costs also made car ownership more affordable, leading to more purchases—families bought second vehicles, and businesses expanded transportation fleets, further increasing gasoline consumption.
With more cars on the road, highways expanded, encouraging even more driving. Instead of saving gas, fuel efficiency made driving easier, ultimately increasing overall fuel use—just as Jevons’ Paradox predicts.
In fact, two of the wealthiest men of the early 20th century, Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller, also benefited from Jevons’ Paradox.
By making steel and oil production more efficient and lowering costs, they didn’t reduce demand—they dramatically increased it, fueling rapid industrial expansion.
Why the Boom is Just Beginning
Here is how I see it: DeepSeek's AI model, designed to do more with less computing power, wont cut AI spendings and it will drive it even higher as more companies scale up their AI infrastructure.
