可以這樣考慮策略

本帖於 2025-01-28 13:38:49 時間, 由普通用戶 三心三意 編輯

 If NVDA already had his top, then the wave 5 would have completed on 1/7 (see the red count V??? in chart). In this case, what we are seeing now is a B wave bounce, and 0.618 is likely the high of this B wave bounce could get to

However, if yesterday's event is a non-event, then we simply move wave iv to yesterday's low, and we are now starting a new 5 wave uptrend. However, even under this scenario, the wave 1 of this uptrend would also see a retrace at some point. It is hard to predict where this wave 1 ends, but given that blue 2 will eventually happen anyway, targetting 132-136 seems to be a good area

Net-net, 132-136 could be a good place to write cc. If we are in blue route, you can always roll up you cover cc in case blue 1 runs higher than what this chart indicates, and then cover it when blue 2 happens.

These are normal conditions. But NVDA is nothing but normal, there is no way to tell if it will for sure rise to 132-136 area. I also marked 0.382 which is minimal area it has to get to in order for us to consider this as a bounce.

所有跟帖: 

我挺喜歡你這種結構性的看法 -cnrhm2017- 給 cnrhm2017 發送悄悄話 cnrhm2017 的博客首頁 (166 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:34:39

Fibonacci is the most reliable indicator -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (219 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:37:59

我想還是上了128.5後再賣吧,這樣底分型出現,大基金就會跟進,我賣OTM利潤高點,同時不會丟失股份 -cnrhm2017- 給 cnrhm2017 發送悄悄話 cnrhm2017 的博客首頁 (155 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:43:20

Sure。 關健點是, 即使你判段錯了(它走藍線), 它也“必然”會有一個2號藍線回調,到那時你還可以close CC -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:45:33

按照FA來看,它大概率走籃線,就是震蕩向上,但是還要等花姐具體對DS的解讀,估計是周五? -cnrhm2017- 給 cnrhm2017 發送悄悄話 cnrhm2017 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:48:52

MSFT, Meta, AWS, and Google 財報後見分曉 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:51:15

-成功的兔- 給 成功的兔 發送悄悄話 (138 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:45:13

well,I have more than enough NVDA:) -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (348 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:49:59

明白了,非常感謝。我似是而非的地方太多了 -成功的兔- 給 成功的兔 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:54:41

圖中的點位隻是參考。關健是用什麽樣的策略 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:53:48

加一句,NVDA很妖, 所以它會不會一定去0.618很難說。這就要看個人的風險係數了 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 10:40:51

Great strategy. Any good roll strategy if cc strike price r? -vitmin8- 給 vitmin8 發送悄悄話 (90 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:29:47

opst is the expert on this, but roll up should be simple. -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (186 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:38:10

Got it. Thanks! @opst has great ideas as well. -vitmin8- 給 vitmin8 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:47:43

haha, not expert. just learned lessons in hard way :( -opst- 給 opst 發送悄悄話 (326 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 15:15:52

多謝昨天你的advice,還好沒賣。我可能到時候減倉一些,畢竟這個風險還是有點大的。 -aloevera- 給 aloevera 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 11:45:55

都怪該死的IBD, LOL -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 12:13:11

是啊,還是要經驗啊。要具體情況具體分析。今年真的太難了。 -aloevera- 給 aloevera 發送悄悄話 (167 bytes) () 01/28/2025 postreply 13:20:49

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