言歸正轉 --- 明天的非農報告至關重要，有可能影響下一步走勢

下麵是我的瞎猜：

報告太熱： Payroll 大於180K， 失業率低於4.1%，每小時平均收入月增幅高於0.04%

           Inflation fear:   SPY/QQQ/IWM down. QQQ will complete C wave and find support around 485-490. 20年國債會向5.5%爬去

報告太冷： Payroll 小於100K， 失業率高於4.3%，每小時平均收入月增幅0.03%

           recession fear:  SPY/QQQ/IWM may rebound initially, 20Y 國債回調到4.5%. But QQQ will eventually come back to test support at 485-490, due to recession worry

報告正好： Payroll 100-180K， 失業率4.1% 到4.2%，每小時平均收入月增幅0.03%

            Goldilock: Market rally. We may see QQQ go back to 531 eventually. However, whether we can go to new ATH depends on future economic data and Trump policy, as well Mag7 earning starting end of Jan. 20Y 國債開始小幅回調

 

所有跟帖： 

• 讚！ 謝分析指導！ -不老企鵝- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 13:33:51

• 隨著AI應用的深入，失業率很可能升高，所以驅逐非法移民和降息減稅應該是川普在任的主旋律。 -6thsense- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 13:57:13

• Disagree. If yesterday’s ADP report indicated anything for -Stockticker- ♂ (144 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:14:34

• 好的。一定會關注。 -有風景的房間- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:37:00

• 我估計就業率下降，inflation 壓力上升。 -Hightides- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:47:36

• wage monthly gain % will be closely watched -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 14:51:29

• 感覺數據as expected :) --隔三岔五來逛逛-- ♀ (30 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 15:38:29

• Yahoo Finance 網上的猜測：“Economists expect that job growth last mont -新遊客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:24:00

• Economists expect last month was solid — but relatively tame — a -新遊客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:25:00

• Econmonth was solid — but relatively tame — at 153,000 and that -新遊客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 01/09/2025 postreply 17:26:00

• 難道不該等幾個月後的校正回歸？ -shaoning- ♀ (0 bytes) () 01/10/2025 postreply 04:05:30