Detailed Calculations Table
Notation:
- SoY = Start-of-Year balance (after the Jan?2 withdrawal).
- Return = QQQ’s annual growth rate.
- EoY = End-of-Year balance.
| Year | Start-of-Year (SoY) (after $160k withdrawal) |
QQQ Return | End-of-Year (EoY) Balance (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | $4,000,000 − $160,000 = $3,840,000 | −33% | $3.84?M ×?0.67 = $2,572,800 |
| 2002 | $2,572,800 − $160,000 = $2,412,800 | −37% | $2.41?M ×?0.63 = $1,520,064 |
| 2003 | $1,520,064 − $160,000 = $1,360,064 | +49% | $1.36?M ×?1.49 ≈ $2,026,495 |
| 2004 | $2,026,495 − $160,000 = $1,866,495 | +11% | $1.87?M ×?1.11 ≈ $2,071,809 |
| 2005 | $2,071,809 − $160,000 = $1,911,809 | +1% | $1.91?M ×?1.01 ≈ $1,930,928 |
| 2006 | $1,930,928 − $160,000 = $1,770,928 | +7% | $1.77?M ×?1.07 ≈ $1,896,892 |
| 2007 | $1,896,892 − $160,000 = $1,736,892 | +19% | $1.74?M ×?1.19 ≈ $2,066,898 |
| 2008 | $2,066,898 − $160,000 = $1,906,898 | −41% | $1.91?M ×?0.59 ≈ $1,124,071 |
| 2009 | $1,124,071 − $160,000 = $964,071 | +54% | $0.96?M ×?1.54 ≈ $1,485,675 |
| 2010 | $1,485,675 − $160,000 = $1,325,675 | +19% | $1.33?M ×?1.19 ≈ $1,578,557 |
| 2011 | $1,578,557 − $160,000 = $1,418,557 | +3% | $1.42?M ×?1.03 ≈ $1,461,114 |
| 2012 | $1,461,114 − $160,000 = $1,301,114 | +19% | $1.30?M ×?1.19 ≈ $1,548,327 |
| 2013 | $1,548,327 − $160,000 = $1,388,327 | +37% | $1.39?M ×?1.37 ≈ $1,905,004 |
| 2014 | $1,905,004 − $160,000 = $1,745,004 | +19% | $1.75?M ×?1.19 ≈ $2,077,555 |
| 2015 | $2,077,555 − $160,000 = $1,917,555 | +9% | $1.92?M ×?1.09 ≈ $2,089,185 |
| 2016 | $2,089,185 − $160,000 = $1,929,185 | +7% | $1.93?M ×?1.07 ≈ $2,063,428 |
| 2017 | $2,063,428 − $160,000 = $1,903,428 | +33% | $1.90?M ×?1.33 ≈ $2,531,561 |
| 2018 | $2,531,561 − $160,000 = $2,371,561 | −1% | $2.37?M ×?0.99 ≈ $2,347,846 |
| 2019 | $2,347,846 − $160,000 = $2,187,846 | +39% | $2.19?M ×?1.39 ≈ $3,041,123 |
| 2020 | $3,041,123 − $160,000 = $2,881,123 | +49% | $2.88?M ×?1.49 ≈ $4,293,872 |
| 2021 | $4,293,872 − $160,000 = $4,133,872 | +27% | $4.13?M ×?1.27 ≈ $5,256,018 |
| 2022 | $5,256,018 − $160,000 = $5,096,018 | −33% | $5.10?M ×?0.67 ≈ $3,414,331 |
| 2023 | $3,414,331 − $160,000 = $3,254,331 | +54% | $3.25?M ×?1.54 ≈ $5,020,181 |
| 2024 | $5,020,181 − $160,000 = $4,860,181 | +30% | $4.86?M ×?1.30 ≈ $6,318,235 |
| Jan?2,?2025 | — | — | $6,318,235 (Final Portfolio Value) |
Final Amount on Jan?2,?2025
$6.32million (approximately).
Key Observations
- Despite the dot-com bust (2001–2002) and other downturns (2008, 2022), the portfolio still grows significantly over 24 years.
- Withdrawing $160k yearly from a $4?million starting balance works out under these historical QQQ returns.
- Disclaimer: Actual returns, tax implications, and fee structures will differ. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
