昨晚仔細看了一遍AVGO財報。現在我給它2025年底前的估值是270-300

有AVGO的千萬不要因為今天大漲就賣掉。現在想的應該是Buy on Dip。

AVGO 2025 EPS 是6.2， 2026 EPS 是7.3。 But I am expecting wall street to revise these estimate up in next few weeks due to "significantly accelerated XPU outlook" --- CEO is now forecasting 60B to 90B XPU market by 2027.  AVGO  現在全年的XPU revenue 也不過是12B

I expect the above EPS to be adjusted by 10% uplift at minimal, which gives us 6.8 and 8 respectively.

If we apply a moderate PE of 35, we have $238 (which is roughly where AVGO is traded today) for end of 2024, and $280 for end of 2025.

More importantly, their 2027 business will be even stronger, so wall street will look at this as the next growth story in AI chip.

所有跟帖： 

• Risk: market sell-off + hyperscaler cutback customer chips -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:32:21

• 你會算估值？ 太厲害了。能幫NVDA算一下嗎？ -QQQ2074- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:33:50

• NVDA 我發了無數次了， 保守估值160-180 -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:42:24

• 那應該買點？ -米奇的廚房- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:45:02

• you need to decide. I am only offering my view -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:47:03

• 280是2025年底吧. -aloevera- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 11:36:20

• 非常感謝你的幹貨，如果2027的估值 才 270，那麽3年漲 $45（20%）也不是很高的回報哦，是不是我沒理解對？ -Austin8- ♀ (303 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:17:30

• it is typo, should be end of 2025 -三心三意- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:19:43

• That's much better and makes sense -Austin8- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 15:42:33

• 60-90B is market size annually, and AVGO is clear leader -三心三意- ♂ (609 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 13:25:40

• 太感謝三心啦，說的非常好 -Austin8- ♀ (0 bytes) () 12/13/2024 postreply 15:30:04