幾天沒來壇裏，今天發現Brightline post
我把我前幾天找Chatgat 算的貼在這裏：
Steps of the Strategy:
-
Initial Investment:
- $10,000 in QQQ and $10,000 in TQQQ on February 9, 2010. Then hold
-
Market Peak and Downturn:
- Identify a market high ( x dollars of qqq )and hold until QQQ drops 20%.
-
Sell QQQ and Buy TQQQ:
- At the 20% drop, sell all Y shares of QQQ (worth 0.8X after the drop).
- Immediately reinvest the proceeds (0.8X) into TQQQ.
-
Wait for Market Recovery:
- When QQQ returns to its pre-drop price (), the TQQQ position likely amplifies the recovery due to leverage.
-
Rebalance:
- Sell just enough TQQQ shares to repurchase the original Y shares of QQQ at dollars.
- Retain any remaining TQQQ shares as profit.
-
Repeat the Cycle:
- Hold both QQQ and TQQQ until the next 20% downturn, and repeat the above process.
Calculation Steps:
-
Use Historical Data:
- QQQ’s price history with dividends.
- TQQQ’s price history since 2010 (leveraged 3x daily performance of QQQ).
-
Track Downturns and Recoveries:
- Major downturns: 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020.
-
Account for Growth and Rebalancing:
- Amplified gains from TQQQ during recoveries.
- Growth of remaining TQQQ shares after rebalancing.
Expected Returns:
- QQQ Alone: A $10,000 investment in QQQ from 2010 to 2024 grows to ~$85,000.
- TQQQ Alone: A $10,000 investment in TQQQ from 2010 to 2024 grows to ~$1.2 million, assuming no downturn rebalancing and holding through volatility.
Your strategy combines these two growth engines while capitalizing on TQQQ's amplified recovery after downturns. This could lead to significantly higher returns compared to holding either QQQ or TQQQ alone, potentially exceeding $2 million depending on the frequency and timing of downturns.
純粹娛樂，不能按此操作 。YMYD
