Waymo 陳本太大。 技術有了,但商業模式不存在。

Waymo 2024 revenue is less than $100M but cost is in the billions. The hardwrae cost for autonomus driving in a single Waymo car is estimated to be $150k to $200K. Even if they can lower the hardware cost, the operation cost is also high (for high-def map).

Tesla FSD already has $300M revenue in Q3. Once Tesla break through on its technology, the earning multiple can grow exponetially. 

Of course, there is always a risk that Tesla can never solve the technology challenge. But if Elon can call back a flying rocket to its launch base, I am going to bet along with Elon rather than Sundar Pitchai.

It is like would you bet along with Steve jobs or Steve Ballmer in 2005?

 

 

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