非常感謝所有在這裏真誠分享的網友。大家都知道我怎麽開始的。更多的不多說了。繼續我的學習筆記。我記憶力不好，把它們放在自己博客。慢慢學習方便。
QQQ的風險（10/17/2024；QQQ：491.25) by 三心三意
Actually, the title is a click bait. Big picture wise, QQQ is fine and it is real hard to find a structure risk at this point. I know some of us are worrying because QQQ looked weak today, but as explained earlier, stocks are under pressue today from Bond market. In the past, when bond yield rise 0.1%, it is a big thing and I have seen Nasdaq and SP500 going down 1-2% with this happened. So, the fact we actually closed in green showed market is buying at weakness. Also Nov VIX has been going lower and now under 20, which is another sign that investors do not see big volatility.
But we do need to be mindful about the potential risk. If I have to think of one big risk for QQQ, that would be the upcoming earning season where an unexpected surprise such as the one from ASML coming from any of the big 7 stocks. Investors are in the waiting mode: they do NOT want to miss the boat to ATH and that is why stock has been brought up every time it went lower, but they also do not want to commit for fear of an earning shortfall
What does this have anything to do with tomorrow?
- For QQQ, regardless if we open high or low, I think it will range bound with a high not exceeding 495 and a low not below 488. If QQQ opens high tomorrow, it may not be a good idea to chase, and if it opens low tomorrow, please do not panic.
- For NVDA, as people pointed out earlier, there are some huge call options between 137 to 142 (351K call options open which could worth hundred of millions). It would be a miracle if MM allows those calls to be ITM by the close. At the same time, put contracts are concentrated at 130 and below so MM could try to keep NVDA above 130 as well. Basically, same strategy as QQQ, no need to panic if NVDA is sold off at open, but also try not to chase if it opens high
The real risk level we need to watch for is that QQQ MUST hold 485-486. There are many important TA indicators all concentrating in this area that I am not going to elaborate. If we break below 485, the uptrend structure is damaged and that is when we need to start to be very careful. Until then, I really dont think we need to be worried.
For NVDA, we need to hold 127 level in ideal case, and MUST hold 123 in worst case. As long as we hold these, the uptrend still intact
關於下一個階段 by 三心三意
QQQ and SPY are going for new ATH. Elliot wave has been playing out very much like what we have estimated in 大千。 The thing I dont know is if QQQ will do a pull back after it reaches 505-510, or do pullback after reaching 540.
My plan now is to ride this uptrend and expect volatility (due to earning season coming). As long as QQQ does not go below 21D EMA (布林中軌），I will continue to hold for this uptrend.
IWM need to see a breakout of 228 to truly confirm.
We have been buying aggressively since 9/11, but dont know if now is a good time to add large positions. Risk/award is not as good as beginning of Sept, meaning, even if QQQ goes to 510, it is only 5-6% gain.
一種簡單實用的選股方法 by 低手隻會用均線
我在大千曾解釋我為什麽專注於交易nvda. 我是ibd的學生/信徒. 我曾當麵請教ibd創始人O'Neil先生, ibd每周推薦一大堆股票(包括ibd 50和bid big 20), 你投資什麽股票? 回答是翻倍股(本質是領漲股). 隨後, 他給出了仔細解釋. 雖然我訂了Ibd, 但是我最常看的是免費網站finviz.com. 如下圖所示, 我可以直接看巨型股ytd股價成長的排行骨. 按照O'Neil先生所說, 我會將我的投資專注於排行榜的前兩名. 這樣, 用相同的投入資金和時間及市場風險, 專注於領漲股, 就是贏在起跑線上. 從2023開始, nvda一直就位於排行榜的榜首, 所以自然就專注於它. 從下圖也可以看到, 交易nvda與交易aapl/amzn/googl/meta/msft/tsla的ytd回報的巨大差別. 炒股也要傍大款! 具體交易細節另說.
得到這個排名, 我的交易就集中於頭兩名. 現在, 第一各比第二名領漲太多, 所以我就專注於第一名.
逃跑信號 by 低手隻會用均線
華爾街頭號交易大師的忠告
I get very nervous about the retail investor, the average investor, this is really really hard, if this was easy. If there was one formula, one way to do it, we'd all be zillionaires . One principle for sure would be get out of anything that falls below the 200-day moving everage.
股市裏買貴的 by 越王劍
投行業龍頭股和投指數差不多。因為指數裏這些龍頭股占的比例都很大。龍頭股跌，指數也跌。大千的搗亂經常說”市場屈從於大佬”也是這個道理。買龍頭幾乎等於買股指還沒有管理費。當然在某個時間斷，個股風險肯定大於股指。
這些龍頭股也是能賺錢的祖宗。龍頭股都不賺錢了，其它公司就更別指望。但是從其它大眾公司的季報也能看出龍頭公司咋樣。連大眾公司的季報都不錯，龍頭們能差？
而且龍頭股盤子大，不容易被操控。優勢明顯。股市裏隻買貴的，便宜沒好貨。隻要不是貴的離譜。
最好的投股辦法 by 圭媽
１，定投指數。這個在投壇已經是老生常談，我就不多說了。
２，在大盤大跌的時候以大資金逐步買入指數基金。我以前寫過一篇關於看什麽指標可以大資金投入，這裏也不多說了。舉一個最近的例子，７月底８月初的時候因為日元套利交易引起的回調導致 QQQ 逼近 200日移動平均線，當時大資金買入的話，現在已經有 13% 左右的升值了。一年中總會出現一兩次這樣的機會，不必每天為了賺一點生活費緊盯著股市出出進進，一年抓住一兩次機會就可以了。
３，長期追蹤幾個基本麵很好的公司，在大跌的時候以大資金勇敢買入。這些公司往往是行業龍頭，長期投資回報率超過指數基金，如果在下跌的時候買入的話，長期的回報率非常可觀。例如，去年年初的時候不知什麽原因，大科技股票被殺跌，當時蘋果跌到 $120, 微軟跌到 $220 附近，如果當時大批買入的話，現在已經接近翻倍了。再舉一個最近的例子，７月底８月初的那次回調，英偉達跌到 $100 以下，當時如果加倉的話，現在也已經有 40% 左右的漲幅了。還有很多類似的例子，不多說了。
