In response to your 2nd question: inverted yield curve

In the past recessions, an inverted yield curve is considered one of the most reliable indicators of an impending recession, often has a lead time of 6 to 24 months.  Recessions always happen after inverted turn to positive (upward sloping).  We still have inverted yield curve, therefore GDP is still positive. Bear markets start before recessions start, and bull markets start before the recession get confirmed.