美聯儲兩三事

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美聯儲兩三事

於2005年,格林斯潘非常謙虛地承認,美聯儲對宏觀方向的預測有限製。

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Reflections on central banking, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
August 26, 2005 https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050826/default.htm

盡管為捕獲和量化我們認為的關鍵宏觀經濟關係做出了廣泛努力，但我們對許多關鍵聯係的了解還遠未完成，而且很可能仍然如此。每個模型，無論多麽詳細或構思、設計和實施得多麽好，都是關於這個世界一個極其簡化的模型。

Despite extensive efforts to capture and quantify what we perceive as the key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many critical linkages is far from complete and, in all likelihood, will remain so. Every model, no matter how detailed or how well conceived, designed, and implemented, is a vastly simplified representation of the world

差不多11年後,他發表了同樣的評論,美聯儲對經濟預測的能力有限,美聯儲貨幣政策有局限性

Former, Current Fed Chairs Emphasize Limitations of Monetary Policy

Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen spoke at New York event

BY: Ali Meyer Follow @DJAliMeyer April 12, 2016 5:55 pm

“真正的問題是貨幣政策在很大程度上是經濟預測，而我們的預測能力非常有限，”格林斯潘說，

"The real problem is that monetary policy is very largely economic forecasting and our ability to forecast is significantly limited," said Greenspan,

伯南克說: “我還認為，我們已經了解到，將所有負擔都推給央行和貨幣政策是錯誤的。”Bernanke said. "I also think that we have learned that it’s a mistake to put all of the burden on the central banks and monetary policy."

他表示："即使在央行被推到極限的情況下，具有更大財政成分的更加平衡的政策，或者更廣泛的政策，無疑會發揮作用。” “我確實認為不幸的是，不僅是美國，全世界的央行都承擔了如此大的負擔，而且我們得到了錯誤的印象，認為隻有央行才能應對經濟低迷。”

"A more balanced policy with a greater fiscal component for example, or for a broader set of policies would no doubt work, even in a situation where central banks were pushed to the limit," he said. "I do think it’s unfortunate that not just the United States but around the world, central banks have carried so much of the burden and we’ve gotten the wrong impression that only central banks can respond to downturns."

2007年五月伯南克誤判次貸潛在破壞性.次貸危機爆發後,美聯儲實施幾輪QE,購買長期國債和MBS,人為壓低長期國債利率

Bernanke: Subprime Mortgage Woes Won't Seriously Hurt Economy Published 17 May 2007

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday [May 17, 2007] that he didn't believe the growing number of mortgage defaults would seriously harm the economy

具有諷刺意味的是伯南克2009年12月19日被授予'Man of the Year' honor

Time Magazine has selected Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "Man of the Year 2009" - I beg your pardon - "Person of the Year 2009." The recognition is very well deserved.

Bernanke deserves 'Man of the Year' honor December 19, 2009

ARTHUR I. CYR Scripps Howard News Service

Keep in mind that selection is based on having the greatest impact on the world over the year, not necessarily for the good 選擇是基於一年中對世界產生最大影響, 不一定是好的。. For example, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were each selected in this ritual of recognition, which dates back to 1927. Bernanke so far has provided very strong and effective political as well as economic leadership in the face of an exceptionally severe recession. The rapid economic downturn was initially sparked by collapse in the subprime mortgage market.

The term "subprime" indicated the widespread irresponsible practice of making mortgage loans to people financially unqualified to have them by traditional banking standards. The housing market fire soon expanded into global conflagration with collapse of the enormous big casino game based on esoteric derivatives instruments.

美聯儲幾次QE,壓低長期債券市場利率.隨著時間流逝,國債不斷增長,使得下一次QE更加困難.美聯儲回旋空間正在縮小. 這是一個複雜的話題,也充滿了變數, 變數其中之一是: 縮表的議程, 市場猜測,估計要等三月FOMC會議才會有具體計劃。