Emotion and Discipline

ERP is a good measure of relative attractiveness of equity vs parking in cash:

 

 

from the great Druckenmiller, who sold in 1999 and then got sucked back in ...

 

所有跟帖： 

• 這個基本就是Fed rate -mobius- ♂ (70 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 13:50:54

• Earning yld is inverse of PE; FF rate is a overnight rate -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 13:53:04

• 轉折點 靠近 開始加/減息點 -mobius- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 13:59:37

• Fiscal policy在吹泡泡 -TangGuoGuo- ♀ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 22:52:24

• 昨天空了一點 CMG -moneytalks- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 13:56:42

• 很難說現在在哪一段。97年開始ERP就變負了。如果那個時候賣了就等於錯過了絕大部分牛市。 -spookyoldtree- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 14:18:26

• You donot have to go all in or all out -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 14:22:42

• True。但是牛市ERP下降很正常。還是應該和其他指標一起看。上次誰貼了一個margin指標也挺好。 -spookyoldtree- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 14:25:46

• ERP is actually a margin of safety for holding risky equity -njrookie- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/08/2024 postreply 15:30:05