定投的另一麵是不賣, 缺一不可 The inspiring story of the worst market time

來源: 數學博士 2023-12-24 06:09:38 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (2502 bytes)

https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiring-story-of-the-worst-market-timer-ever.html

Based on the historical performance of the , it’s that second decision—the fear-based move to sell—that is the more dangerous one. In fact, even if one was the world’s worst market timer over the past several decades, one still made money on stocks, according to an analysis done by institutional portfolio manager and financial writer Ben Carlson.

He names his awful (or perhaps unlucky) investor “Bob.” Bob made his first investment in the beginning of 1973, right before a 48 percent crash for the S&P 500. Bob then held onto stocks after the drop, saving a total of $46,000, and not getting up the gumption to commit more savings until September 1987—right before a 34 percent crash. Bob then continued to hold tight, making only two more investments before retirement, which came right before the 2000 crash and then the 2007 crash!

So how did “Bob” do after these 42 years of epic market misfortune? Actually, he made money. As the market successively made record highs, Bob turned the $184,000 he invested over the years ($6,000 in 1973, $46,000 in 1987, $68,000 in 2000 and $64,000 in 2007) into $1.16 million—for a total profit of $980,000. That represents an annualized return of roughly 9 percent, on a money-weighted basis. Even after accounting for inflation, Bob has increased his wealth substantially by investing in stocks.

The key is that Bob never, ever sold his holdings—instead riding the stock market’s long-term trend higher.

所有跟帖: 

定投大市, 顧名思義就是需要穿越牛熊,風雨不變。 -smlandlord- 給 smlandlord 發送悄悄話 smlandlord 的博客首頁 (259 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 06:52:47

普通人的二個特點 -上海大男人- 給 上海大男人 發送悄悄話 上海大男人 的博客首頁 (608 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 07:48:38

Aren't we all? -數學博士- 給 數學博士 發送悄悄話 數學博士 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 07:52:22

看樣子我不普通,隻是膽小。 -人言可畏- 給 人言可畏 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:09:00

認識並克服就不普通了 -天下無熊無牛僅漲跌- 給 天下無熊無牛僅漲跌 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 10:57:22

兩個91年,百分之十三的還是91年開始? -人言可畏- 給 人言可畏 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:11:15

兩個91年,哪個對? -justbuy168- 給 justbuy168 發送悄悄話 justbuy168 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 22:08:00

如果能解決買的問題,那就會解決多數賣的問題 -越王劍- 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (1897 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 07:50:23

有道理 -zhubajie6- 給 zhubajie6 發送悄悄話 zhubajie6 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:11:33

謝大王明鑒。請教啥是multiple與pe是一回事嗎? -IEbird- 給 IEbird 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:16:18

P/E is the most commonly used multiple -越王劍- 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (126 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:28:19

謝謝回複。深受啟發。 -IEbird- 給 IEbird 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 09:17:28

道理是這樣。數據不全對。7大領頭股的本益比接近30。 -慢想者- 給 慢想者 發送悄悄話 (253 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 08:31:03

就目前為止態勢,小盤股還是相對便宜 -越王劍- 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (242 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 09:26:11

用 RSI和stocks above 50d 200d moving avg 現在股市是在高點沒有疑問要橫向甚至向下盤整 -goingplaces- 給 goingplaces 發送悄悄話 (234 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 16:18:03

將同樣不幸Bob與4倍杠杆小地主比,42年間在3-7%增值地區後者打平比前者財富多12-153%。說明好地點勤能補拙, -IEbird- 給 IEbird 發送悄悄話 (99 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 11:01:58

小地主要辛苦很多,有耐心而且 handy的人不多 -數學博士- 給 數學博士 發送悄悄話 數學博士 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/24/2023 postreply 12:29:13

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