過去的15年隻是一個”massive QE + Deficit Spending" cycle 的前半程而已

來源: njrookie 2023-12-08 05:43:15 [] [博客] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (2356 bytes)
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and the cycle is still on-going. If we start counting from 2008 GFC, we are at the end of easing cycle and the 2nd half of the same cycle just got started. I say it will take another 10 yrs to see the full impact of massive Fed balance sheet unwinding as well as the impact of massive increase in Federal debt level.

Yet for many investors, the 1/2 cycle which lasted 15 yrs were the ENTIRE life span for stock  market investment. human beings are known to project personal immediate past experience into distant future. and human beings also tend to attribute personal sucess to personal skills, and personal failure to bad luck. For equity investment, luck, good or bad, is frequently far more likely than skills in determing the outcome

entry point determines a big part of your investment outcome. it is easy to use 10-, 20- or even 50-yr avg return for projection. 

1 first simple mean return is subject to "volatility drag". for the minimum use LONG term CAGR; (data from yahoo finance historical price)

2 can one sit tight thru 2000-2002? if you held thru it, you only lost 80%. So congrats! You still have 20% Left and it took more than a decade to recover the loss from 2000 high. If you BTDF, you would have been entirely wiped out and would NOT participate in the bounce and recovery. it is one thing to talk about what you will do. it is entirely a differnt thing to sit through an 80% DD. 20% is the max I can sit without questioning my investment thesis and even my personal merits.

 

3 equity mkt, tech in particular, is MORE expensive today in terms of valution multiples even tho the index is below ATH. why? riskfree rate much higher. So stocks are NOT cheaper. It is more expensive. To expect past return, you need another 15-year QE and massive fiscal deficit spending. The Q is can we afford it?

 

Hindsight is 20/20. So the million dollar Q finally: does this look like i bottom; ii peak; iii decent pricing in your eyes?

所有跟帖: 

剛給您給居士的跟帖點讚,正想建議您單開一帖~謝謝分享。 -陳默- 給 陳默 發送悄悄話 陳默 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:45:39

我相信他投資成績,非常棒!就是提醒大家一下 -njrookie- 給 njrookie 發送悄悄話 njrookie 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:46:29

我也相信他的回報率,因為和我401 K裏麵的基金接近 -yangyang08- 給 yangyang08 發送悄悄話 yangyang08 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:48:33

您的補充很好,很多知識點。居士迄今的投資成績很亮眼,也很可信。工作穩定的雙職工家庭, -陳默- 給 陳默 發送悄悄話 陳默 的博客首頁 (911 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 05:55:37

是的,我2000年都歸零了,收入還沒他高,現在都差不多了 -CatcherInTheRye- 給 CatcherInTheRye 發送悄悄話 (153 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:17:38

歸零?我有一筆最早的IRA, 2003年, 從3萬開始, 選的保守基金, 到過5.3萬。 低過2.8萬, 現在11萬 -螺絲螺帽- 給 螺絲螺帽 發送悄悄話 螺絲螺帽 的博客首頁 (59 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:43:39

你這個也很牛得投資!感謝分享! -bobpainting- 給 bobpainting 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 09:11:37

喜歡你的筆名,沒讀過這本書,希望你能講講感想。 -人言可畏- 給 人言可畏 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:47:08

非常理性的分析, 學習了 -samma1- 給 samma1 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:06:18

寫的好 -ZeroSumGame- 給 ZeroSumGame 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:16:34

最近15年,不管是定投股市還是房市,回報率都高,未來難以維持 -gccard- 給 gccard 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:25:24

如果預測未來股市的回報,我認為以每年8-10% -越王劍- 給 越王劍 發送悄悄話 越王劍 的博客首頁 (39 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 06:41:49

nominal return hard to predict。 real return of 4-5% is super -njrookie- 給 njrookie 發送悄悄話 njrookie 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:05:14

這已經很不錯了,投資房也有名義增長和除去inflation的增長 -yangyang08- 給 yangyang08 發送悄悄話 yangyang08 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:08:45

多謝分析. 還是要time the market? -mobius- 給 mobius 發送悄悄話 (58 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:07:51

你還是沒法接受拿到high single digit回報就已經很好了 -njrookie- 給 njrookie 發送悄悄話 njrookie 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:22:02

窮, 貪, 膽小 -mobius- 給 mobius 發送悄悄話 (39 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:30:41

想要找到一個能夠賺到20%的穩定賺錢方式,需要大量的心血和起伏。其實就是一個有自己edge的生意。定投的結果就是平均回報 -njrookie- 給 njrookie 發送悄悄話 njrookie 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:01:46

00年1米spy現在約4米,09年的現在約5米。說不timing,隻是像我這樣的無法駕馭而已 -start2020- 給 start2020 發送悄悄話 start2020 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 07:53:29

對99%人而言,timing的結果是underperform market。意識到這點需要十年。原因就是我帖子裏說的 -njrookie- 給 njrookie 發送悄悄話 njrookie 的博客首頁 (47 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:02:53

我是100%謝謝你的提醒。2千年前有近25年的大牛市,2千年後有近12年的修正平盤。從09年地點我們走過了14年的牛市。 -start2020- 給 start2020 發送悄悄話 start2020 的博客首頁 (159 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 08:24:54

感謝感謝!太棒了。我存下來消化一下這些分析! -bobpainting- 給 bobpainting 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 09:03:45

Long term chart a double top is very obvious. Isn’t it? -goingplaces- 給 goingplaces 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 12/08/2023 postreply 11:08:31

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