這種真實的節目,不會有概率方麵的漏洞讓人鑽的。總感覺是將期望放在20萬,見好就收。不要堅持到最後。

來源: wxcfan123 2022-01-15 23:37:04 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (4965 bytes)
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這裏是網搜來的流程,與我前麵說的有些不同。是幸運觀眾自己從第二輪開始隨機的打開剩下的盒子中的一個。然後,banker出一個價來收買幸運觀眾,讓他拿錢走人。

 

The main game revolves around the opening of a set of numbered briefcases, each of which contains a different prize (cash or otherwise). The contents (i.e., the values) of all of the cases are known at the start of the game, but the specific location of any prize is unknown. The contestant claims (or is assigned) a case to begin the game. The case's value is not revealed until the conclusion of the game.

The contestant then begins choosing cases that are to be removed from play. The amount inside each chosen case is immediately revealed; by process of elimination, the amount revealed cannot be inside the case the contestant initially claimed (or was assigned). Throughout the game, after a predecided number of cases have been opened, the "Banker" offers the contestant an amount of money and/or prizes to quit the game; the offer is based roughly on the amounts remaining in play and the contestant's demeanor, so the bank tries to 'buy' the contestant's case for a lower price than what's inside the case. The player then answers the titular question, choosing:

  • "Deal", accepting the offer presented and ending the game, or
  • "No Deal", rejecting the offer and continuing the game.

This process of removing cases and receiving offers continues, until either the player accepts an offer to 'deal', or all offers have been rejected and the values of all unchosen cases are revealed. Should a player end the game by taking a deal, a pseudo-game is continued from that point to see how much the player could have won by remaining in the game. Depending on subsequent choices and offers, it is determined whether or not the contestant made a "good deal", i.e. won more than if the game were allowed to continue.

Since the range of possible values is known at the start of each game, how much the banker offers at any given point changes based on what values have been eliminated (i.e. the offer increases if lower values are eliminated and decreases if upper values are eliminated). To promote suspense and lengthen games, the banker's offer is usually less than the expected value dictated by probability theory, particularly early in the game.[1] Generally, the offers early in the game are very low relative to the values still in play, but near the end of the game approach (or even exceed) the average of the remaining values.

Only a few people have ever won the top prize on any version of the show (see table below). For a contestant to win the top prize the player would have to select the case containing the top prize and reject every offer the banker makes during the game. The chances of a player selecting the top prize are 4–5% depending on how many amounts are in the game.

所有跟帖: 

由於誰也不掌握多餘信息,正確做法是永遠拒絕莊家,然後得到最初的選擇,後者的期望值是所有選項的平均值 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/16/2022 postreply 11:51:49

比如,還剩兩個盒子,一百萬和一萬。庒家提議給玩家40萬,拿錢走人。他該如何選?我選拿錢走人。 -wxcfan123- 給 wxcfan123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/16/2022 postreply 15:32:42

清醒的選擇是拒絕,因為拒絕的期望值是50.5萬,但是人們還會考慮方差,所以你的拿錢走人也是很有吸引力的 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/16/2022 postreply 16:17:20

問題已轉化為: 你有40萬。現有一拋硬幣賭局,100萬 VS 一萬,你賭還是不賭? -wxcfan123- 給 wxcfan123 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/17/2022 postreply 17:38:06

如果隻賭一次,不賭;如果賭一百次,可以 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 01/17/2022 postreply 17:55:06

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