answer

來源: praisethelord 於 2009-04-30 10:41:13 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 閱讀數 : (393 bytes)
回答: probability question for the season 由 praisethelord 於 2009-04-29 13:36:50

Correct!

See, a 99% test is only accurate for 33.22% of time. The answer showed how misleading that "accurate" tests couild be for low probability events. However, people use "rules of thumb" all the time without noticing this. Diagnosing diseases, predicting stock trends, forecasting earthquakes... Hopefully the question could wake people up to be alerted on "the day".

所有跟帖： 

• great. I am waken up by you. -戲雨飛鷹- ♀ 給 戲雨飛鷹 發送悄悄話 戲雨飛鷹 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 04/30/2009 postreply 11:08:35

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