生活在美國的危險與安全
Safety and Danger in Life in the USA
美國是個萬花筒，每天都有新鮮事、振奮的、傷感的，激動的，不安的，新奇的，喜感的，不一而足。而且觀察者們又常戴著不同顏色的眼鏡，解讀起來就各更是莫衷一是了。哪怕是同一件事情，看法也會大相徑庭。其是非曲直，在網上，甚至在老中的家庭聚會中，都會吵得不可開交。
Living in the United States is like looking through a kaleidoscope, with each day seeing something new – exhilarating, poignant, exciting, unsettling, curious, humorous, and more. Observers, wearing glasses tinted with different colors, interpret events in diverse ways. Even for the same incident, opinions can vary widely. Truth and falsehood debates, whether online or at Chinese family gatherings, can become heated.
能不能不吵架、相對客觀地看事情呢？立場已定，比較難。我下麵設法找一個相對單一事情，即生活在美國的安全問題來討論一下。這個事情，生活在這裏的人，甚至不生活在這裏的人都比較關心的。為了具有客觀性，我尋求公開披露的量化的統計數字。而這些量化的指標中，最清晰的是死亡。生與死是1與0的截然區別。
Is it possible to discuss things without arguing, looking at them relatively objectively? Given pre-established positions, it's challenging. Here, I'll attempt to focus on a relatively singular aspect: the safety issue of living in the United States. This matter is of concern to both those living here and those outside. To maintain objectivity, I seek quantifiable statistical data publicly disclosed. Among these metrics, the statistics of death is especially the clearest – a stark distinction between 1 and 0.
我們這裏不談疾病和衰老導致的死亡，這不是安全問題。我們也不多談自殺，因為自殺固然不好，很多還是使用槍械，但不直接導致別人的不安全。下麵這個圖，首先告訴我們從幼兒1歲到中年後期54歲，美國人群在各個年齡段排前4位的死亡原因。細看一下就可以看出，跟我上麵定義的“安全”相關的有兩條，一是“非故意傷害”（Unintentional injury），二是“他殺”（即殺人，Homicide）。這個概念比“謀殺”（Murder）要稍寬一點。方便起見，本文中不將兩者作嚴格區分。
We won't discuss deaths from diseases or aging, as they don't represent safety issues. Suicide won't be extensively covered either, as it, while tragic, doesn't directly threaten others' safety. The chart below first highlights the top four causes of death in various age groups, from toddlers (1 year old) to midlife (54 years old). Notably, two related to my definition of "safety" are "Unintentional injury" and "Homicide." The meanings of "Homicide" and "Murder" are not the same, but the distinction between them is not strictly made in the article just for convenience.
上圖的下部列舉了“非故意傷害”的主要構成，其中“中毒”（Poisoning）和交通事故兩者遠多於其他（圖中的數字包括未死亡的，所以很高）。中毒導致的死亡主要是吸毒過量（overdose）致死，近年以芬太尼過服致死為主。目前，過服致死每年已達十幾萬人。交通事故致死每年約3.5萬人。謀殺每年約2.5 萬人。這三條 ，即吸毒致死、交通事故和謀殺是美國與“安全”有關的死亡的主要構成。本文中我們逐一分析。
The lower part of the chart lists the main components of "Unintentional injury," with "Poisoning" and "Traffic accidents" far exceeding others. Deaths from poisoning are mainly due to drug overdoses, with fentanyl overdoses being predominant in recent years, causing tens of thousands of deaths annually. Traffic accidents result in approximately 35,000 deaths each year. Homicides amount to around 25,000 annually. These three – drug overdoses, traffic accidents, and homicides – constitute the main elements of death related to "safety" in the United States, which we will analyze one by one.
下麵這個兩個圖反映的是美國在近20年吸毒死亡的情況。作為總體，美國每10萬人中每年有近40人死於過服。芬太尼過服致死近10年呈火箭式上升，已經成為national security的重大威脅，我上個月有博文專門談這個問題。但是，我相信老中的中產們自尊自愛，成為癮君子者應該極少，為此而送命者可以忽略不計。所以吸毒致死是盡管是美國的安全問題，但應該不是老中的主要安全問題。
Let's start with drug overdoses. The graph below illustrates the situation in the United States over the past 20 years. On average, nearly 40 people per 100,000 die from overdoses each year. Fentanyl overdoses have skyrocketed in the last decade, posing a significant national security threat. However, it's assumed that the risk for middle-class Chinese individuals in U.S. is minimal. Thus, while drug overdoses contribute to the overall safety issue in the U.S., they may not be the primary safety concern for the Chinese community.
我們再來看看交通事故。下麵這個圖比較busy。如果想直奔主題，就看中間那個淺藍色的線。如今，美國每年交通事故死亡約3.5萬人，也就是大約每年每10萬人中死亡約10個人。美國的人口在增加，裏程裏程也在增加，但死亡人數卻在下降，這應該主要歸功於車輛安全性的提高。在40年裏，同樣的裏程，死亡概率減少了三分之二。這反映在最下麵那條紅線的下降趨勢。
Now, let's look at traffic accidents. The following graph is quite busy, but you may focus on the light blue line in the middle. Currently, there are approximately 35,000 traffic accident-related deaths in the U.S. each year, about 10 deaths per 100,000 people annually. Despite population and mileage increases, the number of deaths has decreased, mainly due to improved vehicle safety. Over 40 years, the probability of death per mile traveled has decreased by two-thirds, as reflected in the declining trend of the red line at the bottom.
很多時候，交通事故不是通過努力能夠避免的，它的發生有一個概率。我們老中大多要上班，要commute，但我認為大多數老中是謹慎的駕駛者，大多沒有酒駕的惡習，所以在交通事故這個指標上，我認為老中的至少不高於美國的平均水平。
Often, traffic accidents are unpredictable, but their occurrence has a probability. Most Chinese Americans commute, but they are generally cautious drivers, and they are also less likely to engage in drunk driving. Therefore, regarding the indicator of traffic accidents, the Chinese community's risk is assumed to be at least not higher than the U.S. average.
好，現在來看看最引人矚目的暴力犯罪、謀殺和槍擊問題。在很多時候，這方麵，特別是槍擊，即便死的人不多，也對人產生巨大的心理衝擊。例如，美國的交通事故每天死100人，天天如此，習以為常了。但如果出現一個槍擊案，哪怕死10個人，也是令人驚怵的。
Alright, let's now take a look at the most prominent issues of violent crime, murder, and gun violence. In many instances, especially concerning gun violence, even if the number of casualties is not high, it has a profound psychological impact on people. For example, in the United States, 100 people die in traffic accidents every day, and it has become a routine occurrence. However, if there is a shooting incident, even with 10 fatalities, it is still shocking.
在下麵的幾個選圖中，暴力犯罪，謀殺和槍殺不是同一個概念，但三者高度相關。暴力犯罪包括殺人，搶劫、強奸、綁架等。大致而言，在美國大約60-80次暴力犯罪導致一次死亡案例。美國的殺人案例中，約80%是槍殺。
The following charts depict violent crime, murder, and shooting incidents. These three indexes have different definitions, but they are highly correlated. About 60-80 violent crimes lead to one death in the U.S. , and murder cases in the U.S. are approximately 80% gun-related.
上麵是兩個不同渠道（高度一致）顯示的美國最近30年暴力犯罪率（每10萬人）。這張圖顯示的信息可能出乎很多人的意料：它顯示美國的暴力犯罪率在過去的30年中明顯降低，幾乎下降了一半。不得不說，如今的社交媒體具有相當大的“壞事傳千裏”的功效，時常放大負麵消息，讓人出現跟現實不一致的心理感受、以及非理性的焦慮不安。其實上，最近幾十年來，美國明顯地越來越安全了。
The above is the violent crime rate in the United States over the past 30 years (per 100,000 people), displayed through two different channels (highly consistent). The information shown in this graph may be surprising to many: it indicates a significant decrease in the United States' violent crime rate over the past 30 years, almost halving. It must be noted that today's social media has a considerable effect of "bad news travels far," often amplifying negative news and creating a psychological perception that is inconsistent with reality, leading to irrational anxiety and unease. In fact, in recent decades, the United States has become noticeably safer.
槍支謀殺的數據（見下）稍有不同，雖然在2020年前的30年裏，美國槍支犯罪的減少與暴力犯罪減少是同步的，但2020年出現了突然的、超出常理的躍升。我個人有一些分析，但突然想到去問問ChatGPT這是為什麽，它給了我6條可能的原因。前兩條是Pandemic-Related Stress和Civil Unrest（比如白人警察“跪殺”黑人導致騷亂）。人工智能讓人佩服！有幸的是，去年開始槍擊謀殺有所下降。希望今年和未來的年份繼續這個趨勢。
The data on firearm homicides (see below) is slightly different. Although during the 30 years before 2020, the reduction in firearm crimes and violent crimes in the United States was roughly synchronized, there was a sudden, unprecedented surge in 2020. I have some personal views, but I suddenly thought of asking ChatGPT why this is, and it gave me six possible reasons. The first two are Pandemic-Related Stress and Civil Unrest (such as the riots caused by a white police officer who "kneed” a black individual to death). Artificial intelligence is truly admirable! Fortunately, there has been a decrease in firearm homicides since last year. I hope this trend continues in the coming years.
我們再來看看城市犯罪。與30年前相比，紐約市犯罪率的下降十分顯著，近年的謀殺率僅僅是1990年代初的六分之一左右。目前紐約市是美國最安全的大城市之一，暴力犯罪率和謀殺率跟美國的平均水平大致持平。然而，並不是所有的城市都是如此。洛杉磯要差一些，芝加哥就比較嚴重了。當然還有更差的，如底特律、聖路易斯、巴爾的摩等。
Let's examine city crime rates. In comparison to 30 years ago, New York City has seen a significant decrease in crime rates, with recent murder rates being only about one-sixth of those in the early 1990s. Currently, New York City is one of the safest major cities in the U.S., with violence and murder rates roughly on par with the national average. However, this is not the case for all cities. Los Angeles has its challenges, and Chicago faces more serious issues. Some cities, like Detroit, St. Louis, and Baltimore, fare even worse.
下麵這兩張圖，一張將謀殺率按照族裔進行了區分，然後跟世界各國進行對比，另一張顯示美國各個縣的謀殺率。作為總體，美國的謀殺率與世界的平均水平差不多，比南美那些混亂的國家好很多，但卻是歐盟國家的6倍，這顯然跟美國人普遍擁槍有很大關係。槍權是美國的憲法賦予的，改憲法的門檻極高。槍權的是非得失這裏不去討論。然而，看第二張圖，它顯示了美國不同地區安全性的不均衡。美國是一個很大的國家，沒有戶籍製度，人民自由遷徙。老中是從個人安全和子女教育角度考慮，一定是擇鄰而居的。而且絕大多數老中也沒有泡酒吧、逛夜店的癮。所以我充分相信，老中所在社區的犯罪率、謀殺率不會高於歐洲發達國家的水平。對老中來講，遭遇槍擊的危險比車禍的危險要小很多很多。
The two graphs above break down murder rates by ethnicity, comparing them globally, and show homicide rate in all U.S. counties. Overall, the U.S. murder rate is similar to the world average, much better than the chaotic countries in South America but six times higher than EU countries, a consequence largely tied to widespread gun ownership.
The right to bear arms is a constitutional right granted to citizens in the United States, and amending the Constitution to change this right is extremely difficult. The merits and drawbacks of the right to bear arms are not discussed here. The second graph indicates an imbalance in safety across different regions. Given the lack of a registry system and the freedom to move, the Chinese community, being generally cautious and not indulging in nightlife, is likely to experience lower crime and murder rates, should have a rate on par with the average of developed European countries or even lower.
現在讓我們來設想一個scenario，假如你到一個完全代表今日美國平均水平的、一萬人口的小城去生活一年，那麽你會看到，這一年裏麵將有105人去世。在這105個死者中，有4人是藥物過服去世（主要是吸毒所致），1人交通事故去世，0.7人被謀殺，0.8人自殺，0.5人死於其他事故（如溺水、火災等），其他98人都是因生病或衰老去世的。可以想見，這個統計數字如果換成中產華人，藥物過量致死趨近為零，謀殺身亡至少減少80%（因neighborhood不同）。這時候，威脅老中人身安全的，主要就是交通事故了。
Now, imagine living in a small town representing the average U.S. conditions, with a population of 10,000, for a year. During that year, approximately 105 people will pass away. Of these, four will die from drug overdoses (mostly due to drug abuse), one in a traffic accident, 0.7 from murder, 0.8 from suicide, 0.5 from the combined total of other accidents (such as drowning, fires, etc.). The remaining 98 people die from illness or aging. For the Chinese middle class, drug overdose deaths would approach zero, and murder deaths would likely decrease by at least 80% (due to good neighborhood). Therefore, beyond this scenario and in reality, the primary threat to the safety of Chinese residents in U.S. would be traffic accidents.
其實，世界上的不少人對美國趨之若鶩，從某種意義上講，恰恰在於美國宏觀上的“安全”。從它國來到美國的民眾，有的是為民主而來，有人是為自由而來，但大部分的人，我想還是為了更好的生活和更好的未來。美國這個國家，恰恰能夠為沒有任何背景的普通人，以及他們的子孫後代提供發展機會和夢想的實現。這是最大的、最重要的“安全”。
Indeed, many people around the world are attracted to the United States because of its macro-level "safety." Some people come for democracy, some for freedom, but mostly for a better life and a brighter future. The U.S., offering opportunities for ordinary people without any background, along with their descendants, to develop and realize dreams, provides the fundamental guarantee of "safety."
上麵這張圖顯示的是美國最近36年的人均GDP，其中數字已經根據通貨膨脹，折合成了現在的美元。我們可以看到，美國的GDP在人均20,000美元後繼續直線上升，36年又翻了近兩番。美國這樣大的經濟規模，在已經成為高度發達國家（裏根時代）之後，依然能如此發展，令人讚歎。
The graph above shows the GDP per capita of the United States over the past 36 years, adjusted for inflation. The continuous upward trajectory after reaching a per capita GDP of $20,000 is remarkable, almost doubling twice in 36 years.
美國的基礎科學、核心技術、創新能力、知識產權、著名品牌等，是美國發展的根本動力，也是美國遠超其他國家的實力所在。更不要說美國憲法賦予公民的權力，以及美國對外來者的開放和包容這些無比珍貴的軟實力。而且，美國還具有因充分承擔國際義務而帶來的對各國的感召力，以及對世界上的潑皮無賴亮劍的軍事實力。
The U.S. economy, with its basic science, core technologies, innovation capacity, intellectual property, renowned brands, and more, is the driving force behind its development and its unparalleled strength compared to other countries. Additionally, the rights granted by the U.S. Constitution to its citizens, along with its openness and inclusivity towards outsiders, are invaluable soft power. The U.S. also possesses the power to inspire nations through fulfilling international obligations and a military capability to deal with troublemakers worldwide.
所以，生活在美國，雖然要看到和盡力避免其不安全因素，但更應該從宏觀角度看待這一問題。就在今天，WXC上又有人想象各種可怕的事情的發生，又惶惶不可終日了。沒錯，不用說太遠，就在最近這一百年，可怕的事情在美國的確發生了好多次。比如稍遠的有大蕭條和珍珠港事件，較近的有2008年的次貸危機和前兩年的新冠百萬人死亡等。想想美國是怎樣麵對危機、解決危機的。從宏觀上講，前麵提到的美國軟硬實力的綜合，恰恰是生活在美國這片土地上的人民獲得安全感的根本保證。
Therefore, while living in the U.S. requires acknowledging and mitigating potential safety concerns, it's more important to view the issue from a macro perspective. I saw some guys posted on WXC, worrying about various alarming scenarios and creating constant anxiety today. Admittedly, the U.S. has faced many crises in the last century, such as the Great Depression, the Pearl Harbor incident, the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic causing a million deaths. Reflecting on how the U.S. has confronted and resolved these crises, we should gain confidence. The comprehensive strength of U.S. soft and hard power mentioned above is the fundamental assurance of people's safety living in the United States.
【Edited from ChatGPT translation.】
