China needs America more than America needs China.
…
Today, however ravaged by the pandemic, America remains the world’s largest market.* The Beautiful Country is where China and other export countries compete to unload their products. Competition means that production costs have to be cut as deeply as possible.
Working people in export countries will be bringing home less and less. Consequently, they will have to consume less and less. At the same time, they will also have to save more and more for a rainy day if they can afford to do so.
The downward pressure on the wage comes with the downward pressure on demand. This being the case, a large export country like China has no good reason to invite foreign competition, no matter what and how it says to the contrary in the media.
In the meantime, China is more than willing to take in more foreign asset investment (FAI), hoping that more jobs will be created for its hard-pressed youths in particular. But, FAI cuts both ways. Yes, it may be a stimulus to China's job market. On the flip side, however, FAI will also pump more hot air into China's asset bubble. A bubble economy is no fun when it pops.
Here is a friendly reminder: Every bubble pops, sooner or later, and probably sooner.
China cannot afford to lose America which yields to Beijing huge trade surpluses on top of other benefits such as "tech transfer." That's why Beijing has to take cheap money printed by Washington. This may sound like a leap of faith on China's part, but here is the reality: USD accounts for 61% of the world's currency reserves, compared to RMB's meager share of 2% (International Monetary Fund's 2019 report). See the pie chart below.
The world is struggling with weak demand, day and night. Guess who is smiling?
* The EU is arguably the world's largest market, but it is not a nation. It is a large group of European nations.
相較之下、中國更需要美國
今天，飽受疫情煎熬的美國依然是世上最大市場。* 所有出口國都爭相在美市傾銷貨品。競爭的結果、
出口國的生產者們不免受壓減薪，因而直接削弱其消費力；
出口國國內工資的下行壓力，直接導致國內需求的下行壓力。
在不真正開放國內市場的同時，
外資繼續吹大資產泡沫，泡沫就更快會爆破。
不管怎樣凸顯強國國力，北京還是要倚賴美國市場，
美國印鈔，除了藉此大搞疫情福利，增加執政黨政治本錢之外，更不愁人民幣挑戰。人民幣確實不是美元對手，如前所述。北京邊罵“美帝”，邊向“美帝”有增無減地供應相對廉價的消費品。中國自己呢，內需不振，
最後一問：在復甦官話背後，誰在暗笑？
*歐盟或許是世上最大巿場，不過它是代表眾邦，本身並非一個國家
---- Lingyang Jiang
